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1987issue C081-2

Operator gut check when two systems conflict

A core trend-following method can remain unchanged for five years and still become hard to operate after a second approach is added. Editorial reading: score the dual mechanical book by the entries, exits, and skips the operator will actually fire when the two rule sets disagree.

  • A core trend-following method can remain unchanged for five years and still become hard to operate after a second approach is added.
  • A short-term countertrend capability can be modeled, computer-tested, and combined with the original book and still fail as a live dual-system procedure.
  • A plan to net conflicting trades can be easy to state as a rule and still fail in live use if the operator will not take the anti-trend side.
  • Fear and greed can remain the binding execution constraints after extensive computer testing of the combined rules.
Entries in this reading3 entries

Two books, one operator

A core trend-following method can remain unchanged for five years and still become hard to operate after a second approach is added. The original rules need not change for the combined book to become a different job.

A short-term countertrend capability can be modeled, computer-tested, and combined with the original book and still fail as a live dual-system procedure. The computer can hold both rule sets at once. The operator still has to fire them.

Netting the operator will not take

A plan to net conflicting trades can be easy to state as a rule and still fail in live use if the operator will not take the anti-trend side. The written net is not the live book if one side is skipped.

Once capital is at risk, newly noticed fears become part of what must be measured before the combined procedure can be treated as usable. Fear and greed can remain the binding execution constraints after extensive computer testing of the combined rules.

How the offering was packaged

A mechanical offering can be described as two years of study of a famous trader's writings plus physics training while being denied as that trader's own system. Promotional copy can attach famous names and research or computer-analyst titles that the seller had not actually held in employment.

The same seller can face a 30000 fine with a cease-and-desist order and a 291000 copyright judgment on an earlier product, then decline review of a later system that appears to lack a disclosure document.

Editorial reading: those packaging claims and later enforcement facts do not settle the operator question. The dual book is still the set of entries, exits, and skips that will be fired when the two rule sets disagree.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
2 of 38 in the Trend following track
19881-2 pp.Next on Trend followingVisual trend rules need one testable procedureEntry and exit rules that form a basic trend-following system are incomplete until the choice not to trade is written into the same procedure.
All readings on this track · 38 readings
  1. 1986A Marshall Wave book is assembled one confirmed stance at a time
  2. 1987Operator gut check when two systems conflict
  3. 1988Visual trend rules need one testable procedure
  4. 1988Audit trend and breakout rules sold without tests
  5. 1992Weekly 4 percent close reversal case study
  6. 1992Write down the plan, then wait for the cross
  7. 1994Constructing a three-rule moving-average system
  8. 1995Weekly long-only trend rules with a gated retracement exit
  9. 1997Constructing rainbow charts with repeated smoothing
  10. 1997Three-line break as a one-parameter mechanical filter
  11. 2000Nested horizon trend alignment with a momentum stack
  12. 2001When certainty turns off the stop
  13. 2001Price must confirm every setup
  14. 2001Constructing a color stack from every lookback
  15. 2002Evaluating mechanical trend signals from ten-session average excursions
  16. 2004Trend pullbacks with a fifty-day average and relative strength index
  17. 2005Stochastic overbought as a trend-regime state
  18. 2005Trend-following as one testable signal procedure
  19. 2007One checklist for entry, exit and abstention after a market switch
  20. 2008Parallel listings and divergent trend behavior
  21. 2008Recovery headlines versus trend-regime rules
  22. 2008Constructing an intraday trend procedure with confirming close, retest, and planned exits
  23. 2010Mechanical trend-following system design, stops, and validation
  24. 2010A trading-plan that sets entry, stop, trail, and pause together
  25. 2010Multi-horizon cycle signals, trend filters, and stops
  26. 2012Weekly bear-market and shock signals as a mechanical procedure
  27. 2013A 2013 rates week as a structure-first exit drill
  28. 2013Trend following as one testable procedure
  29. 2013A forex veto checklist: trend, pair economy, and crowd bias
  30. 2015Relative-strength-index rules under a 20-percent trend filter
  31. 2015Trend-gated oscillator entry and exit rules
  32. 2016Trend process versus end-goal trading
  33. 2017Gold as a classroom for one midterm-trend procedure
  34. 2017Falling-knife FX longs wait for a four-hour trend turn
  35. 2018A closed procedure for quarterly sector rank slots
  36. 2018A recursive median as shared state for trend rules
  37. 2020Moving-average construction as an objective trend filter
  38. 2020Constructing first and second cross trend entries
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