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Research method

Kelly criterion

Kelly criterion is a canonical archive-taxonomy method; this registry entry defines its inputs, output and use boundary.

Output
Research filter
Input
Account equity, volatility, stop distance and exposure
Horizon
Before entry and throughout the position
Best use
Keep a loss or exposure decision bounded before a trade is placed.

Registry evidence level: replicated. This is a navigation record, not a performance claim.

  • Input: Account equity, volatility, stop distance and exposure.
  • Output: filter.
  • Use boundary: Keep a loss or exposure decision bounded before a trade is placed.
The graph1

How the method is built, and where it has been read

Depends on

Read in the archive14 readings

1982Three gates for a futures book: equity risk, expected value, and shrinking pyramidsSizing and leverage1990Constructing optimal f when trade sizes differSizing and leverage1995A Kelly-style leverage grid and reshuffled pathsSizing and leverage1998Optimal f contract counts versus equity fractionsSizing and leverage2001Bounded crash risk with capital units and optimal fDrawdown and survival2004Bound the loss before leverage changes sizeSizing and leverage2006Ruin odds, the Kelly fraction and optimal f as size filtersDrawdown and survival2010Treat risk of ruin, drawdown limits, and Kelly sizing as consistent pre-trade filtersDrawdown and survival2010Fixed-fractional forex position sizingSizing and leverage2013Kelly fraction versus risk of ruinSizing and leverage2016Expected value versus leverage, drawdown, and Kelly sizingSizing and leverage2017Fixed-fraction sizing versus a theoretical pattern edgeSizing and leverage2018Evaluating double-bottom breakouts as a testable systemChart patterns2020Late double-bottom entries after throwbacksEntry and exit rules
This registry entry describes a research method. It is not investment advice and does not make a performance claim.