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2017issue C0622-25

A policy-shift case that tested a delayed long-cycle wave count

A 2017 wave-and-ratio case study treated a possible 2010 lending-rule rollback as a reason a long-cycle correction dated around 2019 might be delayed rather than cancelled. Elliott wave analysis, a Fibonacci extension, and Relative Strength Index confirmation were then read as conditions that could be accepted or rejected on the same Dow Jones Industrial Average charts.

  • A 2017 wave-and-ratio case study treated a possible 2010 lending-rule rollback as a reason a long-cycle correction dated around 2019 might be delayed rather than cancelled.
  • The case mapped a labeled fourth-wave decline onto a long-cycle sell window and treated a later fifth-wave advance as the path that could carry the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new highs before that window.
  • A weekly Elliott count treated a 2016 low as the start of a fifth wave and used a 61.8 percent Fibonacci extension of the prior third wave as a 23700 objective.
  • A rising weekly 14-period Relative Strength Index, and a monthly 14-period Relative Strength Index turning up and retesting the 70 line, were read as confirmation that the fifth-wave advance, including a possible top near 27784, could still develop.
Entries in this reading3 entries
Current trackElliott wave analysis94 readingsFibonacci retracement97 readingsRelative Strength Index186 readings

A delayed cycle, not a cancelled one

A 2017 wave-and-ratio case study treated a possible 2010 lending-rule rollback as a reason a long-cycle correction dated around 2019 might be delayed rather than cancelled.

The same case mapped a labeled fourth-wave decline onto a long-cycle sell window. It treated a subsequent fifth-wave advance as the path that could carry the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new highs before that window.

Weekly Elliott wave analysis and the Fibonacci objective

A weekly Elliott count on the Dow Jones Industrial Average treated a 2016 low as the start of a fifth wave. The case used a 61.8 percent Fibonacci extension of the prior third wave as a 23700 objective.

A 14-period Relative Strength Index on that weekly chart was read as remaining in a rising trend. The case used that reading as confirmation that the fifth-wave advance could still develop.

Monthly Relative Strength Index confirmation

On the monthly chart, a 14-period Relative Strength Index turning up from a downtrend and retesting the 70 line was treated as a positive confirmation that a fifth-wave top near 27784 remained possible.

Monthly DJIA Wave 5 objectives from the 2017 Elliott count

The 2017 monthly count left the Dow still below two Wave 5 objectives: 21861 if Wave 5 only matches Wave 1, and 27784 if the full monthly extension is allowed. Those figures are the article’s own arithmetic—Wave 1 ran 6557.09 points from 6422.91 to 12980, then that length was added to the Wave 5 origin at 15304.16. Treat both levels as a same-chart checklist: keep the delayed-cycle case only while price works toward them and monthly RSI holds its retest of 70.
The 2017 monthly count left the Dow still below two Wave 5 objectives: 21861 if Wave 5 only matches Wave 1, and 27784 if the full monthly extension is allowed. Those figures are the article’s own arithmetic—Wave 1 ran 6557.09 points from 6422.91 to 12980, then that length was added to the Wave 5 origin at 15304.16. Treat both levels as a same-chart checklist: keep the delayed-cycle case only while price works toward them and monthly RSI holds its retest of 70.DJIA · monthly · 1990-01-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2017-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Wave 1 length is 12980 minus 6422.91. Adding that length to 15304.16 yields 21861.25. The 27784 print is the author’s projected monthly Wave 5 top, not an observed high. RSI 14, 7, 3 retesting 70 is the confirmation the article required and is not plotted here.

Editorial reading: a same-chart checklist

Editorial interpretation: Elliott wave analysis, Fibonacci retracement, and the Relative Strength Index turn the delayed-cycle idea into conditions that can be checked on the same charts. The hypothesis remains acceptable while the weekly fifth-wave count from the 2016 low, the 23700 Fibonacci extension of the prior third wave, and the weekly and monthly Relative Strength Index confirmations still hold.

Editorial interpretation: those conditions can be rejected on the same Dow Jones Industrial Average charts if the wave count, the Fibonacci retracement extension, or the Relative Strength Index confirmation no longer fits. That accept-or-reject reading is a TradersWeek framing, not an archive claim.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
25 of 26 in the Elliott wave analysis track
201836-39 pp.Next on Elliott wave analysisOne role each for wave, Fibonacci, and stochasticThe opening task is impulse versus correction: classify a five-wave trend or a three-wave countertrend, then locate where price sits inside Elliott wave structure.
All readings on this track · 26 readings
  1. 1984Three-gate confirmation for wave, ratio, and cycle turns
  2. 1988Triaging Elliott wave counts with weekly stochastic divergences
  3. 1989Dominant-cycle phase flips as regime tests
  4. 1989Audit signals against elasticity regimes
  5. 1990When wave counts fail the exclusion test
  6. 1991Evaluating hourly DJIA growth-rate and velocity attractors
  7. 1996If a terminal fifth is rewritten, fail the first count
  8. 1998Mapping industrial-average swings with Fibonacci growth and retracements
  9. 1999Define the stop before the wave or the divergence
  10. 2001Form-first Elliott wave construction with phi
  11. 2006Wave count, channel floor, and Fibonacci bands after a correction
  12. 2007Impulse and correction as a recursive fractal recipe
  13. 2008Gold-silver ratio as a shoreline wave
  14. 2008A daily chart trend filter with Elliott wave abstention
  15. 2010Revising Elliott wave counts with RSI and stochastic guides
  16. 2010Constructing corrective-wave hypotheses with Fibonacci retracements
  17. 2011Pre-commit the wave-and-ratio stop before entry
  18. 2012Dated wave and ratio cases need a later-sample test
  19. 2013Keep a 1-2-3 count only while zigzag, Fibonacci depth, and divergence still agree
  20. 2014Elliott-wave target versus the option bid-ask
  21. 2014A three-layer classroom on one daily futures chart
  22. 2015Elliott wave classifies the swing; trend following holds the trade
  23. 2016Constructing wave labels and retracement zones from chart structure
  24. 2017Sector ETF pairs in quiet regimes
  25. 2017A policy-shift case that tested a delayed long-cycle wave count
  26. 2018One role each for wave, Fibonacci, and stochastic
By fieldWaves and ratios90 readingsBy year2017100 readings
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