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2020issue C1258

Ranking futures liquidity before you place the order

A futures book can be ranked for relative-contract-liquidity before an order is sent by combining contract point value, a multi-year maximum price move, open interest, and a volume-factor. Equal-dollar contract counts and effective-percent-margin then let markets be compared on size and capital use.

  • Relative-contract-liquidity ranks how easily a futures market can be traded by combining contract size, open-interest, and a volume-factor so thinner books sit lower.
  • Contracts-to-trade-for-equal-dollar-profit converts each market into a contract count so comparisons are not biased by tick size.
  • Effective-percent-margin divides margin dollars by the three-year dollar range of the contract so capital use can be compared across markets.
  • Markets at the top of a relative-liquidity list are framed as easier to buy and sell, while markets at the bottom are framed as the most difficult to trade.
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A futures liquidity ranking can be built by combining contract point value, a multi-year maximum price move, open interest, and a volume-factor that typically ranges from 1 to 4.

How the relative-liquidity score is built

The relative-liquidity score is the equal-dollar contract count times total open interest times a volume-factor equal to the greater of 1 or exp(ln(volume)/ln(5000) - 2). Open-interest is the outstanding futures positions used as a stock of liquidity when ranking how much size the market can absorb. The volume-factor is a multiplier, often between one and four, that down-weights markets with low recent volume so a large open-interest figure is not mistaken for an executable book. Relative-contract-liquidity is the resulting ranking of how easily a futures market can be traded, so thinner books sit lower.

Compare markets on equal dollars

Equal-dollar comparison requires converting each market into a contract count: tick dollar value multiplied by the three-year maximum price excursion. Contracts-to-trade-for-equal-dollar-profit is that contract count, the number needed in one market to match another market's three-year dollar price range, so comparisons are not biased by tick size. Effective-percent-margin is margin dollars divided by the three-year dollar range of the contract, then multiplied by one hundred, so capital use can be compared across markets.

Read the scale, not a standalone number

Relative liquidity can be shown as a descending visual scale so markets with the densest marks are treated as more executable than markets with one mark or none. Markets at the top of a relative-liquidity list are framed as easier to buy and sell, while markets at the bottom are framed as the most difficult to trade. Column values in such a ranking are proportional and are only meaningful when compared with other markets in the same column.

Share turnover as a stock-market proxy

Share turnover, period volume as a percent of shares outstanding, can be used as a stock-market proxy for trading liquidity and for how activity may relate to price change.

Equal-dollar futures contract counts

Each bar is how many contracts of that market must be traded to match the same three-year dollar profit potential as the others. One Ultra T-bond covers what corn, eurodollar and sugar #11 need more than thirty contracts to match, so a signal sized in one book will not fit another. Values are the December 2020 Stocks & Commodities column Contracts to Trade for Equal Dollar Profit, listed in that table’s relative-liquidity order from Ultra T-bond down to feeder cattle.
Each bar is how many contracts of that market must be traded to match the same three-year dollar profit potential as the others. One Ultra T-bond covers what corn, eurodollar and sugar #11 need more than thirty contracts to match, so a signal sized in one book will not fit another. Values are the December 2020 Stocks & Commodities column Contracts to Trade for Equal Dollar Profit, listed in that table’s relative-liquidity order from Ultra T-bond down to feeder cattle.Listed U.S. commodity futures · December 2020

The source defines the count as tick dollar value times the three-year maximum price excursion, so every bar is the same dollar potential. Row order follows relative contract liquidity, not this count.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
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1988Track finished · Next track: Volume confirmationConstructing volume-confirmation overlays on OHLC spreadsheet charts80 readings
All readings on this track · 20 readings
  1. 1988Wave-count consensus and open-interest confirmation
  2. 1990Calibrating volume and open interest at support and resistance
  3. 1997Grading volume and open interest after moving-average crosses
  4. 2003Constructing an expiration settlement map from listed open interest
  5. 2010Futures liquidity filter for equal-dollar size and open interest
  6. 2010Screen futures for tradeable liquidity before sizing
  7. 2011Screen futures liquidity with open interest and equal dollar size
  8. 2011Construct a daily initiator filter from lead-contract price, open interest, and volume
  9. 2012Ranking futures markets by executable liquidity
  10. 2013Equal-dollar open interest as a futures liquidity filter
  11. 2013Filter futures by open interest and relative liquidity
  12. 2015Filter futures contracts by open interest and volume
  13. 2015Screen listed futures for executable liquidity first
  14. 2015Money-flow lookback versus aggregated open interest
  15. 2016Ranking futures by executable liquidity and open interest
  16. 2018Futures liquidity and open interest as an execution filter
  17. 2019Evaluate futures liquidity with open interest and equal-dollar filters
  18. 2019Screen futures contracts by open interest and liquidity
  19. 2020Filter futures orders by liquidity and open interest
  20. 2020Ranking futures liquidity before you place the order
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