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2015issue C0123

A five-name January book from yield and price ranks

This archive case treats annual portfolio construction as one procedure. Rank-rotation rebuilds a five-name book from a thirty-name industrial index with a value-screen, seasonal-entry opens the book on the first business day of January, and the 2014 holdings show why concentrated-carry still matters inside that small set.

  • Rank-rotation rebuilds the entire holdings list once a year by re-ranking the same thirty-name industrial index and keeping only the five names with the highest dividend yields and the lowest prices.
  • Seasonal-entry buys on the first business day of January and holds for one year plus one day, with the extra day presented as a way to meet long-term capital-gains tax treatment.
  • Cash-dividend-election takes distributions into the account rather than reinvesting them, so the hold is split between a rebound in selected laggards and cash dividends paid during the year.
  • The 2014 five-name set was AT&T, Intel, Pfizer, General Electric, and Cisco Systems, and the case treats concentrated-carry as typical: three names often account for most of that year's work.
Entries in this reading3 entries

One annual procedure

The archive describes annual portfolio construction as a single ranking-and-hold procedure. Each year it ranks a thirty-name industrial index and keeps only the five names with the highest dividend yields and the lowest prices.

That rebuild is rank-rotation: the entire holdings list is rebuilt at a fixed calendar interval by re-ranking the same index universe. Changes in which companies sit in the thirty-name index do not change the ranking-and-hold procedure.

The value-screen and the January open

The selection step is a value-screen. It prefers names that combine a high dividend yield with a relatively low share price inside a blue-chip index, then keeps five names only.

The stated entry rule is seasonal-entry: buy on the first business day of January and hold for one year plus one day. The extra holding day is presented as a way to meet long-term capital-gains tax treatment.

How the hold is split

The write-up splits the mechanics into two parts: a rebound when the selected laggards trail the rest of the index, and cash dividends paid during the hold.

In the model described, cash-dividend-election applies. Cash dividends are taken into the account rather than reinvested in the same names.

The 2014 five-name set

The 2014 five-name set identified in the case was AT&T, Intel, Pfizer, General Electric, and Cisco Systems.

The case states that not every holding is expected to help in a given year and that three names often account for most of that year's work. That pattern is concentrated-carry: a small equal-count book in which a minority of names typically accounts for most of a given year's move.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
14 of 16 in the Value investing track
201715-15 pp.Next on Value investingScreening value traps with regime-aware overlaysPursuing value is separated from becoming stuck in a cheap-looking name whose problems raise the chance of further decline rather than recovery.
All readings on this track · 16 readings
  1. 1988A two-rule classroom book of cheapness and new highs
  2. 1995A supermarket-chain case for yield, trendline, and a written checklist
  3. 1996Annual normalized-yield rank rotation for cyclical sleeves
  4. 1996Value filter then rank-rotate as one procedure
  5. 1997Dow high-yield rank rotation as a testable portfolio procedure
  6. 1998Low relative P/E plus a trendline reversal for regime-aware stock selection
  7. 1998Rank rotation, value screens, and ten-stock diversification
  8. 2001Earnback period ranking for growth-adjusted screens
  9. 2003Stress-testing calendar yield rotation in a declining tape
  10. 2003A value overlay and strangle hedge during a growth-led regime
  11. 2005Unfashionable value versus momentum in the book
  12. 2007Why premove fundamentals rarely flag tenfold-price moves
  13. 2012Year-end yield rank rotation with a collapse veto
  14. 2015A five-name January book from yield and price ranks
  15. 2017Screening value traps with regime-aware overlays
  16. 2017A pre-trade fail test for the cheap-looking name
All 16 readings tagged Value investing
Also on Value investing5 readings