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2016issue C0646-54

Constructing ATR-filtered breakout entries

A swing long is specified as a volatility-and-trend setup, a buy-stop that may expire unused, and a 2-dollar per-share risk bound checked against average true range before size is accepted. Universe screens need unadjusted history, and the same rules can flag new setups or submit both orders.

  • A setup is complete only when a close crosses above a 100-period simple moving average, 14-period average true range is at a 14-bar high, and the current bar is a wide-range bar whose range exceeds 1.5 times the recent average range.
  • The long is not taken on the setup close. A buy-stop is placed 0.50 above the setup-bar high, and a setup timeout or a recross below the moving average can leave that order unused.
  • The per-share risk bound is a fixed 2-dollar initial stop, reused as a trailing stop, and compared with average true range before any size is accepted.
  • A universe screen of mid-price, recent dollar range, and average daily volume must be tested on unadjusted series, and the same rules can flag new setups or submit both orders as a strategy object.
Entries in this reading3 entries

The long setup, the buy-stop, and the per-share risk bound are specified as separate rules. A setup is a bar that jointly satisfies a close crossing above a long simple moving average, average true range at a lookback high, and a wide-range expansion test. The long is not taken on that close. Entry waits on a later trade through a buy-stop, and size waits on a check against the per-share risk bound.

The volatility and trend setup

The long setup is complete only when a close crosses above a 100-period simple moving average, 14-period average true range is at a 14-bar high, and the current bar range exceeds 1.5 times the recent average range. That last test is the required wide-range bar. The average-true-range filter admits a setup only when current average true range is at a short-window high, so low-range names are withheld.

Wide-range-bar and rising-volume flags can be listed as extra confirmation columns without being required to generate the setup.

A buy-stop that may expire unused

The long is not taken on the setup close. A buy-stop is placed 0.50 above the setup-bar high and fills only if a later bar trades through that level. Because the fill may occur on a later bar, one recoding cancels an unused setup after a fixed number of bars so a stale buy-stop cannot remain live. That bar limit is the setup timeout.

A setup can expire with no trade if price recrosses below the moving average before any bar exceeds the buy-stop threshold.

The per-share risk bound and trailing stop

The specified risk bound is a fixed 2-dollar per-share initial stop that is also applied as a trailing stop after the position is open. The per-share risk bound is set before entry and is used to accept or reject size once stop distance is known. The trailing stop starts as that per-share bound and then follows price so the long exits when a later bar trades through the updated level.

When average true range at the entry bar exceeds the fixed dollar stop, a later open can gap through that stop even on an up bar, so the stop distance is a volatility-relative size check made before the order is accepted.

NUGT daily close and 100-day average

Daily NUGT sold off from the mid-nineties into the low teens through 2015, then reversed in February 2016 and crossed back through its 100-day average — the volatility-and-trend condition the swing-long is built on. Closes and the average were read from the Excel daily plot of Direxion Daily Gold Miners; the 1 February 2016 close of 28 is the workbook cursor, not a visual estimate.
Daily NUGT sold off from the mid-nineties into the low teens through 2015, then reversed in February 2016 and crossed back through its 100-day average — the volatility-and-trend condition the swing-long is built on. Closes and the average were read from the Excel daily plot of Direxion Daily Gold Miners; the 1 February 2016 close of 28 is the workbook cursor, not a visual estimate.NUGT (Direxion Daily Gold Miners) · Daily · 2015-06-05T00:00:00.000Z to 2016-03-22T00:00:00.000Z

Visual reads from the Excel window (y-ticks every $20, about 200 daily bars). Only the 1 February 2016 print is exact (cursor: open 26.45, high 28.17, low 26.26, close 28.00, ATR 2.62). Other prices are to the nearest dollar. The workbook used a $4 trailing stop after noting ATR was 3.12 on the February entry, so the article’s $2 stop sat inside current range. Close-adjusted history was on.

Universe screens need unadjusted history

Candidate scans add a universe screen before the setup test, including a mid-price band, a minimum recent dollar range, and a minimum average daily volume. Hardcoded price and volume thresholds applied to split-adjusted history can admit symbols that never traded in the intended band, so unadjusted series are required for a valid historical test of those filters.

Scanner flags and strategy orders

The same rules can be packaged as a scanner or chart alert that only flags new setups and as a strategy object that submits the buy-stop and the per-share stop for historical testing.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
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201739-41 pp.Next on ATR position sizingA dividend date as a pairs-trading classroomDividend setups are treated as time-bounded because the ex-date, record date, and payable date are scheduled, which makes the window more measurable than an unstructured edge.
All readings on this track · 36 readings
  1. 1988Constructing unsigned true range for directional models
  2. 1989Evaluate an always-in ATR breakout as one procedure
  3. 1992Variable lookback and average true range as a trend-filter construction
  4. 1993A random-walk index that uses true range as its scale
  5. 1993A shared harness for trend-filter construction
  6. 1998Finish a trend with a volatility trail, wave permission, and a slower-frame veto
  7. 1999A trend filter that switches tactics and scales ATR targets
  8. 2001Filter higher lows with linear regression, then judge the exit
  9. 2003A Mechanical trading system is a maintained procedure, not only an entry trigger
  10. 2005Construction of a volatility-bounded long entry
  11. 2005Six-zone encoding of open, high, low, and close
  12. 2006Normalized average true range as a pre-entry volatility bound
  13. 2006Chandelier exits, ATR position sizing, and trailing stops
  14. 2007Constructing a rule-based entry with Relative Strength Index and ATR position sizing
  15. 2008Constructing a zero-lag TMA and heikin-ashi crossover as a complete rule set
  16. 2010Use the session-range percent stop as a pre-trade filter
  17. 2011OCA exit groups, trailing limits, and ATR stops
  18. 2011ATR bands around support and resistance for stops and targets
  19. 2013Algorithmic head-and-shoulders construction with bounded exits
  20. 2013Constructing ATR-scaled swing pivots and linear-regression divergence
  21. 2013Constructing volatility bands from typical price
  22. 2014Constructing true-range contraction filters before expansion
  23. 2015Constructing touch plans from modified true range
  24. 2015One checklist for breakout entry and ATR risk
  25. 2015Percentage true-range construction for cross-market volatility filters
  26. 2015Construct a percentage true range for cross-market volatility
  27. 2015Percentage true range as a pre-entry exposure filter
  28. 2016Constructing ATR-filtered breakout entries
  29. 2017A dividend date as a pairs-trading classroom
  30. 2018Range-based volatility as a true-range construction
  31. 2018Moving average support and volatility-band construction
  32. 2018Construct a lifecycle breakout from compression
  33. 2018Pair the book first and let volatility or range set the size
  34. 2019Trend systems need a no-trade rule
  35. 2020Average true range as a shared unit for size, pairs, and stops
  36. 2020Volatility sizing and target-risk leverage as a pre-trade gate
All 43 readings tagged ATR position sizing
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