A search-theme mood compass for regime-aware trade context

Search-theme scoring as a construction step

The archive starts with daily internet search themes rather than with market headlines. Search-theme scoring breaks the day's hottest topics into constituent themes, codes each theme on a mood compass, multiplies those codes by hit counts, then sums and normalizes the result into a single day's social-mood mix.

Editorial reading: that daily score is a construction step. It is meant to place one upcoming close inside a multi-market, multi-horizon mood regime, not to stand alone as a forecast gadget.

How the mood compass is coded

The mood compass used for that coding has an inner wheel of four opposite polarities and an outer wheel of four archetypal mood qualities. The premise is that events and themes can be placed somewhere on that eight-category wheel.

Inner-wheel polarities are the first four compass categories. They are treated as two opposite pairs, so every theme can be scored as a relative mix of north versus south and east versus west.

Outer-wheel archetypes are the second four compass categories. They are more complex than the inner polarities and represent the four primary mood qualities: controlled, vulnerable, expansive, and manic.

Inner-wheel scores are normalized so north, south, east, and west total one hundred percent. Outer-wheel scores are normalized so the four primary mood qualities likewise total one hundred percent. That rescaling is the normalized mood mix.

From one mood mix to four markets

The resulting market-mood indicator is constructed to estimate movement in the S&P 500, crude oil, gold, and the US dollar from the hottest daily internet search themes rather than from market headlines alone.

A cross-market mood map uses that one scored social-focus series to locate those markets in different mood-compass neighborhoods rather than treating them as one market state.

The lead-lag mood window is the observed delay between a day's scored social focus and later market closes. That lead is described as about three days for stocks, gold, and the US dollar, with crude oil lagging further.

The same lead-lag construction is presented as reusable at larger scales. Weekly or monthly search-theme data can be read as a weeks-to-months regime window rather than only a next-day estimate.

Primary mood qualities and the daily stack

High emotional or nonrational scores are framed as orientation to fears, hopes, passions, and beliefs that can move prices in either direction, not as an automatic bearish regime.

When expansive mood is highest, the construction treats people as highly energized and prone to panic, with markets able to drop quickly but effects that may not last. When controlled mood is highest, rallies driven by hoping for the best and denying inconvenient facts are described as often followed by a downturn.

Bullish and bearish components are valued from the relative distance between paired mood qualities, then added within the same day to produce one combined reading. The bullish-bearish component stack is that same-day pairing of high and low mood qualities, scored by how far apart those qualities are and summed into one daily reading.

Event-driven search spikes

A worked two-trend day shows how a high-volume calendar-and-food theme and a multi-theme cultural-search event are scaled by millions of hits and combined into one normalized daily score before conversion into the four primary mood qualities.

Each of those themes is an event-driven search spike: a high-volume daily search theme, such as a calendar holiday or a cultural production, that enters the day's mood total because it dominates public attention.

Editorial use as regime-aware trade context

Editorial reading: regime-aware trade context means putting a single intended trade next to the current mood mix, the relevant market's lead-lag window, and neighboring market locations before deciding whether the setup fits the broader regime.

Editorial reading: the daily score, the primary mood qualities, the bullish-bearish component stack, and the cross-market mood map are construction pieces for that context. They are not separate forecast gadgets.