2019issue C0618-25
Election windows as testable regime filters
A small-sample case study kept only transitions toward a more pro-business successor, measured each election-window in a US-listed country vehicle, and specified entry, exit, and a stand-aside-rule as one procedure.
- A transition-filter kept only general elections in which government orientation moved from a socialist or left-wing incumbent toward a pro-business successor, and only where a US-listed country vehicle made the window executable.
- Each election-window ran from a prior low to the day before the vote, then from the day after to the first subsequent high. A trimmed mean after dropping the best and worst paths was reported beside the simple average.
- Currency-translation and listed-vehicle-gap were required inputs, because listed vehicles diverged from local indexes through home-currency moves, different constituents, and gaps versus net asset value.
- Close polls and runoffs were treated as an uncertainty-spike. The stand-aside-rule reduced exposure when the outcome was unresolved, and a delivery-conditional-hold governed how long the post-vote clock could run.
An executable election window
The archive studied short- to medium-term election windows as a small-sample empirical case study, not as a statistically conclusive test. The event window was examined as an executable procedure rather than a local-index narrative.
Who belongs in the sample
The historical case set used a transition-filter. Only general elections in which government orientation moved from a socialist or left-wing incumbent toward a pro-business successor were admitted.
Only countries with a US-listed country index vehicle were kept, so the event window could be examined as an executable procedure rather than a local-index narrative.
When the holding clock starts and stops
Each election-window was measured from a prior low to the day before the vote, then from the day after the vote to the first subsequent high. That span was the system holding period.
A trimmed mean, after dropping the best and worst observations, was reported alongside the simple average so a few extreme country paths would not define the sample.
Currency translation and the listed vehicle
Listed country vehicles diverged from their local indexes because of home-currency moves, different constituents, and gaps versus net asset value. Currency-translation and vehicle choice were therefore required inputs.
Currency-translation means reading the home currency against the dollar so a local-index path can be judged in the listed vehicle a trader can actually hold. The listed-vehicle-gap is that remaining difference after currency, constituents, and net asset value are taken into account.
Most home currencies rose versus the dollar across the same windows. The yen weakened under easier policy, and the Argentine peso fell after a free-float decision.
Polls, uncertainty, and standing aside
Close polls and runoffs were treated as a high-volatility regime. The near-vote interval, especially the final two weeks or a runoff, was the uncertainty-spike.
The entry, exit, and abstention rules were specified as one procedure: reduce exposure before the vote when the outcome is unresolved, then re-enter only if the market-friendly candidate wins. That stand-aside-rule cuts or withholds the signal when polls are too close to name a winner.
Pre-vote strength was tied to the poll-margin-input, the leader's poll gap, which served as a market-state variable for how early and how strongly the pre-vote window may form. After an initial honeymoon, post-vote duration was a delivery-conditional-hold: the clock kept running only while campaign promises remained politically deliverable.
What the sample does not settle
The work was presented as a small-sample empirical case study of short- to medium-term election windows, not as a statistically conclusive test.
All readings on this track · 23 readings
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- 1991Evaluating successive policy hikes as equity regime warnings
- 2002Easing season meets commodity-bond reflation
- 2002Precious metals as portfolio insurance in uncertain regimes
- 2003Housing leverage after an equity crash
- 2003US rebound, capital-flow funding, and dollar translation
- 2003A three-path tape for recovery, inflation, or deflation
- 2006Disaster shocks, energy bottlenecks, and intermarket spillover
- 2008Speculative leaders and regime context for ten-bagger setups
- 2008A presidential transition as a dollar regime-timestamp
- 2009Check the regime before you hunt a setup
- 2009Withhold an equity regime label until credit-linked ratios agree
- 2010Energy futures, the dollar, inventory, and scenario risk
- 2011Official floors, sidelines, and scale-in after a telegraphed FX intervention
- 2014Scheduled prints as sector pair filters
- 2016Place a yuan devaluation inside peg, contract, and funding context
- 2017Quiet tape, seasonal soft edges, and event risks
- 2017A search-theme mood compass for regime-aware trade context
- 2018Bound headline trades with if-then paths
- 2019Election windows as testable regime filters
- 2020Climate capital rotation as a regime, then an event test
- 2020New listings as regime-aware portfolio events
- 2020One pre-trade checklist for event phase, pairs, and pattern outcomes