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2013issue C1045-46

Gold futures wave four, competing complexes, and written ratio tests

A monthly gold-futures chart from December 10, 2012 through August 15, 2013 treated the decline as an unfinished fourth wave and a complex-correction still working into the 0.382 to 0.618 fibonacci-retracement band. Two lettered counts stayed in view, and each was written to fail on a price or time test.

  • The monthly gold-futures decline from December 10, 2012 through August 15, 2013 was treated as an unfinished fourth wave and a complex-correction inside the 0.382 to 0.618 fibonacci-retracement band.
  • A W-X-Y double-three aimed at 962 or 898 between September 2, 2015 and May 2, 2016, and was written as invalid if the X wave failed to reach 1524.
  • A W-X-Y-XX-Z triple-three aimed at 800 on February 2, 2019 if the Z leg measured 0.618 of the W leg, and was written as invalid unless wave XX matched wave X in both time and price.
  • The fourth-wave label required the decline to last at least through September 2, 2015. A shorter span would fail a duration-ratio-test against the prior third wave's 144 bars.
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Current trackMedian line19 readingsElliott wave analysis94 readingsFibonacci retracement97 readings

An unfinished fourth wave

A monthly gold-futures chart from December 10, 2012 through August 15, 2013 treated the decline as a still-unfinished fourth wave. The move was read as a complex-correction: a sideways Elliott structure built from two or more corrective patterns joined by connector waves, rather than a single zigzag or flat.

That correction was mapped into the 0.382 to 0.618 fibonacci-retracement band. The band was used as a candidate end zone for the corrective wave, not as a finished destination.

A 5-and-70 oscillator was cited as showing the fourth wave unfinished after only a first move into a 0.9 to 1.4 confirmation band.

Monthly gold futures testing the 0.382 retracement

By August 2013 the 2011 high at 1923.7 had given back enough that the monthly low of 1287 sat on the printed 0.382 retracement at 1289.6, while the 0.50 and 0.618 supports at 1093.8 and 897.9 were still unused. The path is read from the monthly candlesticks; those three Fibonacci prices and the 1923.7 / 1287 / 1375 prints are the figure’s own labels. The later W–X–Y–Z sketch is a forecast and is left off.
By August 2013 the 2011 high at 1923.7 had given back enough that the monthly low of 1287 sat on the printed 0.382 retracement at 1289.6, while the 0.50 and 0.618 supports at 1093.8 and 897.9 were still unused. The path is read from the monthly candlesticks; those three Fibonacci prices and the 1923.7 / 1287 / 1375 prints are the figure’s own labels. The later W–X–Y–Z sketch is a forecast and is left off.Gold futures (GC) · Monthly · 1995-01-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2013-08-31T00:00:00.000Z

Pre-2011 prices are digitized from candlesticks on a two-hundred-dollar axis and are only good to about ten to twenty dollars. Fibonacci levels use the printed 0.382 / 0.500 / 0.618 retracements of the bull market measured from about 263.9 to 1923.7.

Two complexes on one chart

One count cast the correction as a double-three, a W-X-Y complex in which two corrective patterns are linked by one connector wave. That count aimed at 962 or 898 between September 2, 2015 and May 2, 2016.

A longer count cast the same decline as a triple-three, a W-X-Y-XX-Z complex that adds a second connector and a fifth lettered leg. That count aimed at 800 on February 2, 2019 if the Z leg measured 0.618 of the W leg.

The archive specified both paths. It did not collapse the monthly correction into a single lettered story.

Price and time tests that retire a count

The double-three count was written as invalid if the X wave failed to reach 1524.

The triple-three count was written as invalid unless wave XX matched wave X in both time and price.

The fourth-wave label required the decline to last at least through September 2, 2015. A shorter span would recast the move as a subwave of the third wave because it would cover less than 33.3 percent of that third wave's 144 bars. That comparison is the duration-ratio-test: a bar-count check that drops the fourth-wave label if the decline occupies less than one-third of the prior third wave.

What the tests are for

Editorial reading. The numbered targets, the 1524 X-wave hurdle, the XX-to-X match, and the September 2, 2015 duration floor are the point of the case. They turn a monthly correction into a hypothesis that can be marked wrong on the chart.

A median-line, in this editorial framing, is only the channel behind that overlay. It is a central pitchfork ray through a three-point swing, used to locate a working channel around the wave-and-ratio overlay. It does not replace the written invalidation tests.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
11 of 19 in the Median line track
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All readings on this track · 19 readings
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  2. 1986Constructing median and action-reaction lines from pivots
  3. 1989Median line construction from three market turns
  4. 1990A failed median-line test marks the start of wave three
  5. 1995Constructing three-pivot median-line channels
  6. 1996Median-line pitchfork construction for trend and reversal tests
  7. 2000Nested median-line channels as falsifiable swing tests
  8. 2002Median-line versus speed-resistance on one trend
  9. 2003Independent witnesses: a median-line miss, a breadth average, and volume bands
  10. 2012Constructing oblique trendlines and median-line channels
  11. 2013Gold futures wave four, competing complexes, and written ratio tests
  12. 2013The weekly 1-2-3 map as a permission layer
  13. 2014Measured-move and daily pivot price-projection construction
  14. 2014Constructing median-line channels from a pivot
  15. 2016Median-line far parallel as a precommitted exit
  16. 2017How high is high: Elliott wave landmarks
  17. 2017A three-layer veto for a suspected third-wave high
  18. 2020Basic chart rules for Nasdaq trend reversals
  19. 2020Stacking wave counts, retracements, and median lines
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