Early rounded bottom recognition on a locked log-price grid

Hypothesize from a half-cup

A rounded bottom is a cup-like decline, quiet low, and recovery in price structure that can be hypothesized from a half-formed base rather than only after the right rim is complete.

In the historical workflow, a developing rounded bottom is hypothesized from a half-cup: a decline, a quiet low, and an incomplete recovery. The right rim does not have to be finished.

Lock the log-price grid

Pattern recognition here means a fixed sampling window and lookback that scores ordered log closes against empty grid boxes and a two-window directional-strength test.

The recognition window uses natural-log closes. It anchors the left edge at the highest close in the span and sets the bottom at the lowest log close in that same span.

A 5-by-5 grid splits the log-price range and the time span into five equal parts so empty boxes and bar-count rules can be checked mechanically.

A candidate half-cup needs at least 20 bars and no log-close values inside the designated empty boxes of that grid.

Split directional strength in two stages

Directional strength is scored with a simplified Wilder-style index on log closes, using simple rather than exponential smoothing.

The left half of the window must show directional movement above 25. The right remainder must show directional movement below 25.

The two directional readings use lookbacks of twice and three times the grid box length so the decline phase and the later quiet phase are scored on different sample widths.

Treat early identification as construction, not confirmation

Early identification is offered as a construction aid, not confirmation. A half-cup is required if a full cup will form, but a half-cup does not prove that the full pattern will complete.