2001issue C101-7
A historically derived growth checklist for entry, exit, and staying out
The archive presents a historically derived model of winning stocks as one selection procedure, not a single-indicator story. Candidates must clear earnings, sales, strength, sponsorship, and base-breakout tests, while climax runs, missing follow-through, and post-loss fear are named as reasons to sell or abstain.
- The archive presents a historically derived model of winning stocks that combines many fundamental and technical measurements into one selection procedure.
- A relative-price-strength rating of at least 80, and preferably 90 or higher, is a hard buy filter, with accelerating earnings and sales, return on equity over 17%, volume demand, institutional-sponsorship, and a base breakout also required.
- A climax-run after a long advance is treated as an almost-always sell signal, and a follow-through-day on the fourth or fifth rally day is used to judge whether a new bull phase has begun.
- Fear and lack of self-confidence after recent losses, not a shortage of published rules, are named as the main reasons capable people fail to apply the same checklist.
What the archive presents
The archive presents a historically derived model of winning stocks. It combines multiple fundamental and technical measurements into one selection procedure rather than a single-indicator story.
What must be true before a buy
Leader candidates are required to show accelerating earnings and sales, return on equity over 17%, volume demand, institutional-sponsorship, and a breakout from a chart base. Institutional-sponsorship is treated as large-fund buying or selling and as the dominant source of supply and demand.
A relative-price-strength rating of at least 80, and preferably 90 or higher, is stated as a hard buy filter. Relative-price-strength is a 1-99 ranking of a stock's price change versus all other stocks over a lookback window, used as a cutoff rather than a narrative of strength. Outstanding historical names are described as averaging 87 before major advances.
Price-to-earnings ratios are treated as non-decisive in the models, contrary to the common low-P/E value versus high-P/E overvalued rule.
Base-building and follow-through
The required breakout is handled as base-building: a repeatable price-structure condition on a chart, such as a cup-with-handle or other basing area, used as a falsifiable entry hypothesis rather than a visual story.
Index cup-with-handle structures and a follow-through-day on the fourth or fifth rally day, not the first bounce, are used to interpret whether a new bull phase has begun. A follow-through-day is a later-session confirmation that a rebound in the averages is more than the first bounce after a decline.
Climax runs as a sell rule
A climax-run is a late-stage acceleration in which price advances very sharply after a long advance, treated as a sell signal rather than a reason to add. The archive describes price rising as much as 50% in two weeks after many months of advance as an almost-always sell signal. More than half of true growth leaders are said to top this way.
Fear, news, and keeping the same rules
Bear-market bottoms are described as periods when news is terrible and participants are scared. The archive treats that setting as a normal anticipatory market state rather than a reason to invent new rules.
Human nature and the institutional source of supply and demand are said to be more stable than market size or the number of individual participants, so the same checklist remains the operating model.
Fear and lack of self-confidence after recent losses are identified as the main barriers that keep capable people from applying a studied procedure, not a shortage of published rules. Editorial reading: those barriers are handled as a trading-psychology-process, a rule-bound response to fear, overconfidence, and news panic that keeps entry, exit, and sitting-out decisions inside the same procedure.
All readings on this track · 17 readings
- 1994Cup-and-handle base construction and volume breakout
- 1996Constructing a mobility oscillator from price distributions
- 1996Float turnover as a construction rule for bases and breakouts
- 2001A historically derived growth checklist for entry, exit, and staying out
- 2003Base-building then breakout after a market bottom
- 2005Commodity group bases, breakouts and pennants
- 2005Logic-first construction of a base-break system
- 2005Quiet bases copied onto an intradacy clock
- 2005Failed cup-with-handle after earnings and float filters
- 2006Turning flat bases into breakout system rules
- 2007Base-building holds versus swing timing
- 2007Confirmed index highs, style-fit trend systems, and bases
- 2007Name the sideways regime before you test the breakout
- 2011A three-peaks-and-a-domed-house chart is not a complete timing model
- 2014Constructing a volume-capacity channel from a sideways base
- 2016Waves, bases, and the campaign log on a price chart
- 2020Ratio charts as regime context for relative strength and yield spreads