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macroJul 20, 2026, 1:38 PM

TD Securities: Fed on Hold Through 2026 with Upside Hike Risk

TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the fed funds rate unchanged until 2026, citing persistent inflation above target and a resilient labor market, with an upside risk that the next move could be a hike.

TD Securities projects that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current fed funds rate through 2026. Inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, while the labor market continues to show strength. These factors create an asymmetric risk that the next policy action could be a rate hike rather than a cut.

The analysis suggests a prolonged 'on-hold' stance, diverging from market expectations of eventual easing. The firm emphasizes that the data-dependent Fed will likely keep rates steady as long as inflation and employment conditions persist.

Source: FXStreet Forex News