AI Cut US Payrolls by 16,000 Jobs a Month, Goldman Says

Goldman Sachs Research estimates that artificial intelligence has reduced U.S. payroll growth by roughly 16,000 jobs per month over the past year, while raising the unemployment rate by about 0.1 percentage point.

The estimate is a net figure: AI-driven substitution eliminated around 25,000 jobs each month, while AI-related augmentation and increased demand for workers offset about 9,000 of those losses.

The impact is falling disproportionately on younger and entry-level workers, especially in data entry, customer service, billing and administrative support.

Goldman cautions that the current shock remains relatively narrow, with AI also supporting employment through productivity gains and the large build-out of data centers and related infrastructure.