Wave and ratio checkpoints versus a dominant dollar story

The larger trend and the corrective phase

EUR/USD and GBP/USD were framed as still being in long-term downtrends. The prior six months were treated as a possible short-term corrective phase: a shorter countertrend swing inside a larger labeled trend.

TradersWeek editorial: that framing keeps the larger Elliott-wave count on the desk. The bounce is unfinished business until the structure itself fails. It is not automatic proof that the downtrend has ended.

Ratios stayed on the map after the headline

Renewed current-account headlines were noted as arriving after GBP/USD reached a 61.8 percent retracement and EUR/USD reached a 50 percent retracement.

The EUR/USD map listed discrete upside reference prices at 1.2849, 1.2883, 1.3169, and 1.3225. Fibonacci references at 61.8 percent and 78.2 percent were described as still active, with closer approaches making a dollar-supportive chart stance harder to keep.

TradersWeek editorial: the sequence is the teaching point. Fibonacci-projection work had already marked candidate turning areas before the deficit story got louder. A second-vote habit leaves those levels in place. If price accepts through the active ratios, the dollar-supportive stance loses its chart case. If it does not, the headline has not rewritten the map.

Sterling turning areas as medium-term peaks

GBP/USD was labeled with Elliott-wave structure and approximate upside turning areas at 1.857, 1.869, 1.890, 1.897, 1.929, and 1.901. Those areas were to be read as possible medium-term peaks until a downside pattern formed.

TradersWeek editorial: a medium-term peak is a pause or turn candidate, not a confirmed reversal. The Elliott-wave count locates where the currency move may still be completing rather than reversing. The next swing structure is what would confirm or reject the label.

Policy mix only as context

A restrictive-rate plus expansionary-fiscal policy mix was cited as a still-plausible path for dollar appreciation, even while current-account warnings remained widespread.

TradersWeek editorial: policy mix is only context for why a chart thesis might persist after a popular deficit story. It does not replace the Elliott-wave, Fibonacci-projection, or point-and-figure checkpoints.

Convergence on the euro-sterling map

EUR/GBP long-term references for a wave-5 peak were given as 0.745, 0.75, 0.755, 0.795, and 0.81. Added weight was said to come from Fibonacci-extension and point-and-figure count convergence.

TradersWeek editorial: a ratio cluster is a zone where more than one Fibonacci or measured-move reading lands near the same level. Point and figure is used here as a time-independent box-and-reversal count, a second measured objective that can confirm or reject a ratio target. Convergence raises the bar for what would invalidate the map. It does not make the map immune to later price.

A wave reading versus the prevailing story

The case set a wave-and-ratio reading of later dollar strength versus the euro and pound against a then-prevailing media view that the dollar should keep falling.

TradersWeek editorial: the archive records a historical workflow, not a verdict on later markets. The habit worth keeping is to let structure, ratios, and box counts vote independently when one macro story dominates the tape.