2020issue C058-16
Intra-swing Fibonacci fitting and completion targets
Prior completed swings place Fibonacci retracement and expansion levels so later pivots and consolidations can be annotated at those ratios. Intra-swing Fibonacci fitting then sizes an overlay to stalls inside a still-unfinished swing and reads that overlay's 100% line as the projected completion price.
- Prior completed swings are used nominally to place Fibonacci retracement and expansion levels, after which later pivots and consolidations are annotated at those ratios.
- Intra-swing construction measures internal stalls, turns, and consolidations as percentages of a still-unfinished swing, not only as ratios of already completed neighboring swings.
- Fibonacci fitting tests overlays that extend past the current swing extreme, and the 100% end of an overlay with many interior respects is the projected completion price.
- Alternative overlays are compared by quality of fit, and a farther 100% projection is considered only after a nearer fitted target is exceeded.
Ratios from completed swings
Prior completed swings are used nominally to place Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci expansion levels. Later pivots and consolidations are then annotated at those ratios.
A Fibonacci retracement is a ratio taken from a completed swing and laid back through later price to mark a candidate reaction inside that earlier range. A Fibonacci expansion is a ratio taken from a completed swing and carried beyond that swing's extreme to mark a candidate continuation level.
The same inter-swing construction appears on a monthly large-capitalization stock chart and a daily broad-index cash chart. Lettered swings locate the ratios.
How a Fibonacci level is read
A Fibonacci level is not required to be touched exactly or to block penetration. Unused levels from other swings still exist in live charting even when they are omitted from simplified figures.
Construction inside an unfinished swing
Intra-swing construction measures internal stalls, turns, and consolidations as percentages of a still-unfinished swing. It is not limited to ratios of already completed neighboring swings.
Nearby ratios are grouped as a Fibonacci zone. The pairs 21.4% and 23.6%, and 76.4% and 78.6%, are drawn together and read as moderately wide bands instead of forcing a single-ratio choice.
Fitting an overlay past the swing extreme
Fibonacci fitting enlarges or shrinks an unfinished-swing ratio overlay until stalls, pivots, and consolidations collect at its interior percentages. Larger overlays that extend past the current swing extreme are tested in the same way.
The 100% end of an overlay with many interior respects is the projected completion price. That 100% end is a Fibonacci projection, used only after interior price action has already respected that overlay.
Comparing overlays and checking an older map
Alternative fitted overlays can be compared by quality of fit, a count of distinct interior ratio levels later respected as support or resistance. A farther 100% projection is considered only after a nearer fitted target is exceeded.
On an equity-index futures example, fitted completion prices lined up with conventional Fibonacci retracement levels taken from two prior overlapping swings. The unfinished-swing projection and the older-swing retracement maps can be checked against each other.
All readings on this track · 18 readings
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- 2001Constructing butterfly-spreads from a weekly impulse to daily D
- 2002Projected Fibonacci targets from breakout levels
- 2004Constructing wave-ratio clusters with Fibonacci and Gann
- 2006Third-wave impulse counts wait for a dated cluster
- 2006Wave and ratio checkpoints versus a dominant dollar story
- 2007A 2007 EUR/JPY news shock as a Fibonacci retest drill
- 2008Constructing Fibonacci retracement, projection, and range maps
- 2010Swing projection targets and support-backed put sales
- 2010Fibonacci clusters as a tight support or resistance decision
- 2011Fibonacci projections and money-flow divergence on a Dollar Index downswing
- 2011Crude oil wave confluence as a decision map
- 2016Box range projections for cup breakout entries
- 2018Fibonacci pinball and the 2016 election-week scoring drill
- 2019Named line-break rules for a wave count and Fibonacci map
- 2019Objective Fibonacci grids for support, retracement, and projection
- 2020Gold Super Cycle nested waves and Fibonacci bands
- 2020Intra-swing Fibonacci fitting and completion targets