Hormuz reopening could lift SEK against NOK, Commerzbank says

According to Commerzbank FX analyst Michael Pfister, a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could favour the Swedish krona over the Norwegian krone. He notes that the Norwegian krone is more sensitive to oil price movements than its Swedish counterpart, while the Riksbank’s rate expectations adjust more strongly to oil shocks than those of Norges Bank.

This asymmetry means that easing supply risks in the Hormuz — likely pushing oil prices lower — would lift SEK against NOK. Pfister’s analysis points to NOK/SEK downside if oil markets normalise.

The view underscores diverging central bank dynamics: Norway’s economy is tied directly to petroleum exports, but Sweden’s monetary policy reacts more aggressively to oil-driven inflation changes. As geopolitical tensions ease, the Swedish krona could gain ground.