Canada Core Softness to Guide BoC Path, TD Securities Says

TD Securities’ Robert Both expects Canadian headline CPI to rise to 2.9% year-on-year in July, driven by higher gasoline and food prices.

Excluding food and energy, core components are expected to remain soft. That underlying softness is likely to guide the Bank of Canada’s policy path, according to TD Securities.

The figures highlight a divergence between headline pressure from volatile items and subdued core inflation, with markets watching how the BoC weighs the two signals.