AUD/USD Forecast: RBA Faith Keeps Bulls Hopeful Above 200-Day SMA

The Australian dollar's short-term outlook remains tilted to the upside as long as spot trades above its 200-day simple moving average. The Reserve Bank of Australia's relatively hawkish stance continues to lend support, even as the pair struggles to overcome the psychologically important 0.7000 handle.

A sustained failure to break and hold above 0.7000, however, leaves the currency vulnerable to a retest of lower levels. Traders watching the RBA for policy cues note that while the central bank's cautious tone has capped downside, upside momentum stalls near the 0.70 figure.

The neutral-to-bullish bias thus hinges on the dual test of holding above the 200-day SMA and eventually conquering 0.7000. A decisive break above that level could spark a more meaningful rally, while a drop below the moving average would shift the near-term outlook to bearish.