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2005issue C011-3

Index-etf-core weights, a growth-index-clock, and an implementation-cost-ledger

A historical five-step sequence builds an index-etf-core from capitalization and style funds, times the growth sleeve with a growth-index-clock, holds three industry baskets beside the core, and lines up expense ratios, commissions, and manager fees on an implementation-cost-ledger.

  • The construction sequence is presented as five steps covering timing, intermediation, an index-fund array, a core risk mix, and account-level execution.
  • The index-etf-core assigns 15 percent to each of four style-and-size funds and 10 percent to each of two broad size funds, then adds three industry baskets at 5 percent each and 5 percent cash.
  • The growth-index-clock enters after an S&P 500 BARRA Growth absolute decline lasting more than one year and exits after an absolute advance lasting more than two years, then applies a value-overweight-defense.
  • On a 100000 notional, the implementation-cost-ledger lists expense ratios of 0.06 percent to 0.20 percent, a 10-unit commission cap, 158 in annual fund expenses plus 90 in commissions, a 2.4 percent manager fee line, and a 1.75 percent fund-complex expense line.
Entries in this reading3 entries

A five-step construction sequence

The construction sequence is presented as five steps covering timing, intermediation, an index-fund array, a core risk mix, and account-level execution.

The index-etf-core

The index-proxy set spans large-cap value, large-cap growth, small-cap value, small-cap growth, large-cap blend, and mid-cap blend benchmarks.

Illustrated core weights assign 15 percent to each of four style-and-size funds and 10 percent to each of two broad size funds, totaling 80 percent. That sleeve is the index-etf-core.

The remaining invested sleeve is three industry baskets at 5 percent each, bringing the invested share to 95 percent with 5 percent cash.

The growth-index-clock

Growth-fund entry is tied to an S&P 500 BARRA Growth absolute decline lasting more than one year, and exit to an absolute advance lasting more than two years. That rule is the growth-index-clock.

Sale of the growth funds is followed by a value-overweight-defense: an overweight in the paired value funds until a later rebalance after a subsequent multi-year decline.

The growth-index timing rule is described as holding from 1979 through 2003 except during 1998-2001.

Moving 5-year annualized returns: S&P 500 vs growth vs value

Traders should see growth leading value in the late-1990s up-leg and then collapsing faster into 2001, which is the regime the article uses to time the Russell growth sleeve. Values were read off the printed Figure 4 curves (not a source table), so they are approximate.
Traders should see growth leading value in the late-1990s up-leg and then collapsing faster into 2001, which is the regime the article uses to time the Russell growth sleeve. Values were read off the printed Figure 4 curves (not a source table), so they are approximate.S&P 500, S&P 500 growth, S&P 500 value · 5-year annualized · 1979-01-01T00:00:00.000Z to 2001-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Digitized from the raster of Figure 4 (Moving 5-year Annualized Return). Readings are to the nearest 1 percentage point. The printed series break around 1991–92; that gap was left unfilled. The source itself flags 1998–2001 as anomalous.

The industry-basket-sleeve

Industry baskets are rotated after a one-year high above the purchase price.

Editorial reading: each industry-basket-sleeve is a same-industry index holding used to express a sector view without single-name concentration.

The implementation-cost-ledger

A 100000 notional illustration lists fund expense ratios between 0.06 percent and 0.20 percent and a 10-unit commission cap per trade.

The same illustration lists 158 in annual fund expenses plus 90 in commissions, a 2.4 percent manager fee line, and a 1.75 percent fund-complex expense line.

Editorial reading: an implementation-cost-ledger is a side-by-side tally of those fund expense ratios, ticket commissions, and manager or complex fees on a fixed notional.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
9 of 19 in the Index proxy comparison track
20051-2 pp.Next on Index proxy comparisonEuropean index proxies as one weekly-regime panelFour listed country baskets are tradable stand-ins for the Swedish, French, German, and United Kingdom equity indexes.
All readings on this track · 19 readings
  1. 1992Country regime inside global allocation and index proxies
  2. 1992Intermarket confirmation for long-duration bond-fund timing
  3. 1993Paired bond and currency proxies with weekly crossover confirmation
  4. 1995Walk-forward evaluation of a municipal futures timed fund switch
  5. 1999Regime-gated allocation with bounded index leverage
  6. 1999Testing trend following with cash-price controls
  7. 2002A capital-preservation case for index-proxy allocation
  8. 2003A shared weekly-average grid for four Asian index proxies
  9. 2005Index-etf-core weights, a growth-index-clock, and an implementation-cost-ledger
  10. 2005European index proxies as one weekly-regime panel
  11. 2006Index-fund proxies as intermarket regime instruments
  12. 2006Constructing metal option exposure with mining proxies and implied volatility
  13. 2010Matched straddles on levered versus unlevered index proxies
  14. 2013Inheritance as an index-proxy and allocation case
  15. 2014Headline index levels mix a changing basket with a changing divisor
  16. 2017Screening ETFs by liquidity, index fit, and rank
  17. 2019Leveraged commodity proxies fail the futures test
  18. 2020Constructing pre-listing paths for new fund sleeves
  19. 2020A sleeve after cost-drag, judged by an index-proxy, sized in a stock-bond mix
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