Swissquote Implements 1:10 Share Split
A clause in Elon Musk's Tesla pay award would set aside operational milestones in a SpaceX merger, leaving payouts tied to deal price. Analysts rate TSLA a Hold with 13.4% upside.
Tesla's CEO performance award includes a provision that would change how Elon Musk's stock payout is calculated if Tesla is bought by another company, particularly in a merger with SpaceX.
Normally, the full award requires Musk to meet 12 market-value goals plus operational targets such as delivering 20 million vehicles, producing 1 million robots and launching 1 million robotaxis. In a SpaceX merger scenario, those operational requirements are dropped entirely, and the payout would hinge on the final deal price or Tesla's market value just before closing.
The scale of the payout rises with the deal size. At an $8.5 trillion transaction value, all 424 million shares in the award would vest, worth an estimated $824 billion after recent share dilution. At a $2 trillion buyout, Tesla would be valued at roughly $506 per share based on pre-deal share counts, which triggers the first tier and grants Musk 35 million additional Tesla shares. That extra issuance would lower the effective per-share consideration for other investors to about $502.
In an all-stock transaction, Tesla shareholders would get 3.8 shares of the combined company for each Tesla share. Musk would hold about 73% of total voting power in the combined company, owing to Class B SpaceX shares that carry 10 times the voting weight of ordinary shares.
Approval dynamics remain important. Musk controls 86% of SpaceX voting power and can choose a majority of its board, and Texas corporate law requires shareholder plaintiffs to hold at least 3% of a company's stock. But any Tesla-SpaceX combination would still require a shareholder vote. Musk holds just under 20% of Tesla voting power, so outside investor support would be needed. A larger deal would deliver more shares to Musk but could dilute early SpaceX investors.
Wall Street currently assigns TSLA a Hold consensus rating, based on 10 Buys, 15 Holds and three Sells over the past three months. The average 12-month price target is $377.43, implying about 13.4% upside.
Source: Swissquote