Odds of Inflation Above 4.5% in 2026 Fall to 19% Low

The probability of U.S. inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026 has fallen to a record low of 19%, according to data shared by The Kobeissi Letter.

This marks a sharp reversal from just seven weeks ago, when the odds stood at 85%. The decline suggests that inflation expectations are moderating again.

The data implies that market participants are reassessing the trajectory of price pressures, potentially influenced by recent economic data or policy signals.

The low probability indicates that a scenario of sustained high inflation is now considered unlikely by the market.