Market no longer expects Fed rate hike in September
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September has fallen to 47%, down from a peak of 70%, as market expectations shift toward an extended pause.
The market-implied odds of a U.S. interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting have dropped below 50%, signaling a sharp reversal in sentiment. According to data cited by The Kobeissi Letter, the probability now stands at 47%, down from a high of 70%.
If the Fed leaves rates unchanged, it would extend the current pause to its longest duration since 2008. The shift comes as traders reassess the likelihood of further tightening amid evolving economic signals.
- Market expects a 47% chance of a hike in September (down from 70%)
- Potential for the longest rate pause since the 2008 financial crisis
- No change would keep the federal funds rate steady at its current level
Source: The Kobeissi Letter