Gemini Wants Apex’s Crypto Prediction Flow. But Apex Already Has Kalshi

Gemini has entered into a non-binding letter of intent (LOI) with Apex Fintech Solutions under which Gemini would serve as the exclusive regulated venue for crypto event contracts distributed through Apex's Futures Commission Merchant (FCM). Brokerages offering such contracts through Apex would use Gemini for execution and clearing, the companies said. A definitive agreement has not been signed and final terms remain subject to negotiation.

The proposed arrangement follows Gemini's second-quarter results, in which its prediction-markets business generated $500,000, or about 1% of total revenue. Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss described predictions on the earnings call as "the largest near-term growth opportunity on the platform." CEO Tyler Winklevoss said building the prediction platform in-house allows Gemini to make the product available to partners such as Apex.

Gemini's regulated infrastructure includes Gemini Titan, which holds a CFTC Designated Contract Market licence, and Gemini Olympus, which holds a Derivatives Clearing Organisation licence covering clearing and settlement. The proposed Apex distribution channel would expand order flow beyond users accessing Gemini directly.

Kalshi Tension

The exclusivity clause highlights potential overlap with Apex's existing event-contract offering. Through its API-based infrastructure, Apex already gives brokers and fintech firms access to Kalshi's regulated marketplace without requiring them to build direct exchange connectivity or separate FCM infrastructure. Under the LOI, crypto event contracts distributed through Apex's FCM would be executed and cleared exclusively by Gemini. Contracts covering sports, economics and financial markets could also be included, but on a non-exclusive basis.

The announcement does not explain how the proposed crypto exclusivity would interact with Apex's existing Kalshi integration. It also provides no product specifications, commercial terms, eligible brokerages or launch date. The companies said they expect to finalise the details in the coming weeks.