Gemini Calls the Segment That Brought In $500,000 Its Biggest Growth Opportunity

Gemini reported a net loss of $107.7 million for the second quarter, marking its fourth consecutive quarterly loss since its initial public offering in September 2025. The results, published on 13 August, showed revenue rose 37% year-on-year to $45.5 million, ahead of analyst estimates, while assets on the platform fell 54% to $8.4 billion amid lower crypto valuations and institutional custody outflows.

Shares fell about 6% in after-hours trading after the report, following a 3% gain in the regular session. The stock has dropped from an intraday high of $45.89 on its Nasdaq debut to around $4.06, a decline of more than 90% in under a year.

Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini's president, described prediction markets as the platform's largest near-term growth opportunity, pointing to the sports calendar in the second half. But the segment's contribution remains minimal: it generated roughly $500,000 in Q2 revenue, about 1% of Gemini's total. Cumulative event contracts traded surpassed 225 million since the product launched in December 2025, up 93% quarter-on-quarter, although Gemini has not disclosed dollar volume. Third-party estimates put cumulative turnover at about $24 million as of July, a fraction of Kalshi's reported $100 billion-plus in notional volume and smaller than volumes Kalshi and Polymarket saw around the 2026 World Cup alone.

Regulatory groundwork

Gemini spent five years securing the approvals behind its prediction-markets push. Its Gemini Titan subsidiary received a Designated Contract Market licence from the CFTC in December 2025, allowing event contracts for US customers, and added a Derivatives Clearing Organization licence in April 2026 to self-clear its own contracts. Winklevoss said in 2025 that prediction markets could be "as big or bigger than traditional capital markets" — a claim the company is now testing against rivals with a multi-year head start.

The expansion into prediction markets, credit cards and other non-crypto products comes as core exchange revenue remains under pressure across the industry; eToro, Robinhood and Coinbase all reported falling crypto revenue for the second quarter. Gemini has described itself as crypto-centric and said it is working toward a "super app for the markets economy." Management has characterized the past nine months as a period of product rebuilding rather than a return to profitability, leaving the next quarterly report to show whether new products can become a meaningful revenue driver.