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fxJul 24, 2026, 12:58 PM

ECB September Rate Hike Risk Rises on Oil and PMI Data – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts point to rising odds of a September rate hike from the ECB, citing higher oil prices and PMI figures. Lagarde has left the door open for such a move, but euro area inflation needs to improve significantly to confirm it.

EURUSD

According to Commerzbank analysts, the probability of a September rate hike by the European Central Bank is increasing, driven by climbing oil prices and recent PMI data. ECB President Christine Lagarde has already signaled openness to a September move.

However, sources indicate that a substantial improvement in euro area inflation is required before the ECB commits to a hike. The bank is closely monitoring incoming data, and the next decision will depend on whether inflation trends align with the hawkish outlook.

Source: FXStreet Forex News