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macroAug 19, 2026, 12:42 PM

Clarity Act Signing Odds Plunge to 20% for 2026

Market-implied odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 have dropped to 20% from more than 80% just months ago.

Market-implied odds for the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 have fallen to 20%, according to The Kobeissi Letter. Just months ago, markets saw an 80%+ chance of the bill becoming law.

The sharp repricing removes a previously expected legislative catalyst for crypto markets. Traders now face a more uncertain policy backdrop heading into 2026.

With that catalyst fading, market participants are watching for a new driver to support digital assets.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter