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fxAug 18, 2026, 12:57 PM

BNY: Market Overpricing RBNZ Hikes for New Zealand Dollar

BNY's Geoff Yu says markets are overpricing RBNZ rate hikes, while foreign holdings of New Zealand government bonds rose to 58.9% in July 2026.

NZDUSD

BNY strategist Geoff Yu cautioned that market expectations for Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hikes look too aggressive. His comments come as foreign holdings of New Zealand government bonds climbed to 58.9% in July 2026, reflecting strong offshore demand for local debt.

At the same time, NZD/USD is trading slightly above its 12-month level, which may leave the currency exposed if rate-hike pricing is scaled back. The note highlights a potential mismatch between positioning in New Zealand assets and the likely path of RBNZ policy.

Source: FXStreet Forex News