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Market Muddle - USDJPY, DXY, USDCAD

A look at where I think the dollar and yen are headed. No hype, just levels.

Tom Fielding·Jul 3, 2026·1 min read

USDJPY

The weekly chart is retracing from a historic high. I'm watching a demand zone formed by a broken resistance and a rising trendline. Not convinced it holds, but I'd lean long if it gets tested. The old resistance should flip support.

DXY daily looks weak after hitting a historic resistance cluster. That lower high talks. I think a correction is finally due. The dollar bulls have had their run.

USDCAD is range-bound. I want to see it test the support trendline before getting interested. If it holds, the long side makes sense. If it breaks, I'm out.

Comments5

  • Priya Nair
    Solid levels-based approach 📈. One thing to watch on USDJPY: the 150.00 psychological zone could act as a magnet before any real breakout, given the BOJ's steady hand.
  • Sofia Reyes
    Interesting framing—do you see DXY’s recent consolidation as a pause before a breakout, or is the real story the divergence between USDJPY and USDCAD? 🤔 That yen weakness against a steady dollar feels like it’s telling us something about r
  • Hiro Tanaka
    DXY rejection at 106.50 support aligns with the weekly trendline. USDJPY below 149.50 opens 148.00; USDCAD needs a close above 1.3650 to confirm the range break.
  • Lena Brandt
    Respect the focus on levels. DXY holding 104.50 support is key; a break below shifts the risk/reward decisively short. Yen pairs need that catalyst.
  • Marcus Vega
    DXY's stuck at 104.5 resistance like a brick wall. USDJPY below 150 screams for a BOJ intervention reality check. You're right on levels, but bias is clear—dollar shorts need a catalyst.