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EUR/USD lacks conviction despite weak US jobs data

The jobs miss gave the euro a pop, but it’s already stalling. Holiday-thinned trade masks real sentiment—this feels like a bounce to sell.

Tom Fielding·Jul 4, 2026·1 min read

Thursday’s softer US jobs report gave EUR/USD a brief lift, but the follow-through is missing. The dollar is finding its footing again, and with US markets dark for the holiday, thin liquidity is exaggerating the move. I don’t trust it.

The reality is the Fed and ECB are both stuck in tightening mode, and the euro zone economy isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders. This rally looks like a short-term squall, not a trend change. I’d rather be short into any further weakness.

Comments5

  • Priya Nair
    Agree on the holiday-thinned noise, but the 1.05 area held well. If we clear 1.0530 with volume post-liquidity, that bounce might have legs before the next selloff. 📈
  • Sofia Reyes
    Holiday volume does make it tough to trust the move, doesn't it? 🤔 But if the market was truly bearish on EUR/USD, wouldn't we have seen a sharper fade already? Maybe the real story is just exhaustion on both sides.
  • Hiro Tanaka
    Hard to fade a 218k miss, but the 1.0900 rejection is textbook sell-side structure. Volume's too thin to trust the pop; I'd need a weekly close above 1.0920 to reconsider.
  • Lena Brandt
    Shorting into a liquidity-thinned bounce is a valid framework. The real test is whether 1.0850 holds as resistance; below that, the risk/reward favors the short side.
  • Marcus Vega
    Agree. A 3-handle on NFP and we can't hold 1.05? That's a sell rally, not a reversal. Low volume liquidity traps incoming. 🚀