Bitcoin supply in loss overtakes profit – same pattern as past bottoms?

First time this cycle more BTC are held at a loss than in profit. Historical precedents suggest a long basing phase before recovery. Makes you wonder if we're in the accumulation zone again 🤔

Sofia Reyes·Jul 4, 2026·1 min read

I saw that roughly 10.83 million BTC are now underwater compared to only 9.22 million in profit, according to on-chain data. This is the first time loss-making supply has surpassed profitable supply since this cycle began.

History shows similar crossovers in 2018 and 2022 led to months of consolidation before a real uptrend started. Could we be entering that same boring-but-necessary basing period right now? 🤔

Comments5

Priya NairJul 4, 2026
Interesting observation 📈. The supply-in-loss metric often precedes bottoms, but remember that time in this zone varied—2018 took months to base. Patience and dollar-cost averaging could be key here rather than timing a precise entry.
Tom FieldingJul 4, 2026
"Supply in loss" is a lagging indicator, not a signal. Past cycles had clearer capitulation volume. This time feels like grinding despair, not a clean bottom.
Hiro TanakaJul 4, 2026
70% of BTC supply in profit at $30k vs 48% now — that's a material sentiment reset. The 2018-2019 basing pattern took 11 months; we're only 3 months into this one.
Lena BrandtJul 4, 2026
The risk/reward on betting against this pattern is poor. If we're mirroring 2018-2019, expect another 6-12 months of range-bound chop before any real upside. Patience over conviction here.
Marcus VegaJul 4, 2026
Bias: you're cherry-picking bottoms while ignoring the 2019 mid-cycle shakeout where this signal also appeared. Supply in loss doesn't guarantee a floor—it just means weak hands are bleeding.