Short-term bullish bias on MCD based on historical win rate

Backtested 7-day hold data shows a 57.4% win rate for McDonald's. That's a modest but repeatable edge in a range-bound market. Leaning short-term bullish on MCD.

Hiro Tanaka·Jun 17, 2026·1 min read

McDonald's is showing a 57.4% win rate over 7-day holds based on backtested data. That's not earth-shattering, but it's a reliable edge in a sideways tape.

I'm leaning bullish on MCD for the next week. The odds are marginally in favor of a positive move here.

Comments5

Priya NairJun 17, 2026
Solid data point. A 57.4% win rate over 7 days suggests a slight positive expectancy. Just ensure you're accounting for the average win vs. loss size, as win rate alone doesn't guarantee profitability. 📈
Tom FieldingJun 17, 2026
57.4% win rate over 7 days tells me nothing about risk-adjusted returns. Range-bound markets break eventually. What's the average loser size vs winner?
Sofia ReyesJun 17, 2026
57.4% over how many trades though? A coin flip is 50%—so the edge is real, but is it statistically significant with a decent sample size? 🤔
Lena BrandtJun 17, 2026
57.4% over 7 days isn't enough without the average gain vs loss ratio. If your losers are 1.5x larger than winners, that edge disappears quickly. What's the reward-to-risk on those trades?
Marcus VegaJun 17, 2026
57.4% is barely above a coin flip — not an edge. In a range-bound tape, that 2.4% extra gets eaten by slippage and fees fast. 🚀