Three-check Fibonacci swings in Treasury bonds

A completed swing waits on three checks

Editorial note: treat a completed swing as a three-lock problem. The wave count, the calendar length, and the measured price proportion must agree before the swing is closed.

A Fibonacci-based futures checklist can be split into three independent tests, pattern, time, and ratio. Each test is expected to express the same integer series before a swing is treated as complete. That provisional agreement is a fibonacci-fit.

Pattern-check

The pattern-check is a count of an advance or a decline as three waves. Those waves may nest minor-wave and intermediate-wave swings inside a major-wave.

In this checklist both advances and declines are counted as three-wave structures that mirror each other, rather than as an asymmetric two-wave decline. A two-wave map is therefore unfinished.

Time-check

The time-check asks whether wave spans, or a first wave plus its correction, land on Fibonacci durations such as 13 weeks or 89 days. The second wave and its correction are also expected to end on such a span.

Ratio-check

The ratio-check compares a wave or pullback length with 0.382, 0.618, 1, or 1.618 of a prior wave. A continuation-ratio of 1 or 1.618 is used mainly for successive waves of similar degree when projecting the next swing. A corrective-ratio of 0.618 or 0.382 is used mainly for corrections.

After a sharply oversold or overbought first swing, later corrections were described as nearer 38.2 percent. A typical advance from a non-oversold area was described as more often correcting about 61.8 percent.

Keep the Treasury-bond count open

An October 1981 Treasury-bond low near 55.00 was placed on an 89-week cycle low. Two completed major-wave swings were read as implying a required third major-wave. Editorial reading: the pattern-check stayed open until that third major-wave could be counted.

The 1983 peak and a completed time-check

Nested 1.618 projections from the minor-wave sequence were used to raise the upside objective to 80.00, later identified as the 1983 peak. After that peak a 55-week cycle landing just before the second intermediate-wave was treated as completing the time-check.

Mapping the decline from 80.00

The decline from 80.00 was mapped with a 1.618 objective from the first major down-wave, a 61.8 percent correction of the second major down-wave, and a third major down-wave to 59.16 as the 1.618 maximum projection of that second wave.

A missing minor-wave and a major turn

A missing minor-wave, the third, then made a slightly lower low on a 144-week cycle from the prior low near 55.00. After that low, pattern-check, time-check, and ratio-check were all treated as aligned for a major turn. Editorial reading: the larger decline stayed open while that minor-wave was missing, even after the 1.618 projection at 59.16 had been named.

The later advance still has a time marker

A later advance to 74.07 was mapped with the first two major-wave swings about equal, a 1.618 projection of the second wave at 73.16 on a 21-week cycle, then a 38.2 percent and a 61.8 percent retracement of the rise from 59.16. The next named time marker sat at 34 weeks. Editorial reading: the 34-week marker is a reason to keep the time-check, and therefore the whole count, under review after 74.07.