Even-number first penetration as a construction problem

Harvest zones at even prices

The construction assumes that many participants harvest gains at even dollar prices, so the first passage of those figures is treated as a condition that typically draws a reaction.

An evenFigure is a psychologically round price, yield, or cross-rate level treated as a structural harvest zone. A firstPass is the initial print slightly beyond that figure, hypothesized to reverse toward the approachNumber.

Which series counts

Which print counts is part of the rule. seriesSelection is the rule-level choice among the lead or closest-to-cash contract for weekly structure, a dominant contract that may be in delivery or split by old-crop and new-crop leads, and cash or a cash index when most participants are not watching futures.

For rates and currencies the evenFigure is taken from yields or cross rates and then mapped onto the future, such as an 8.25 percent yield to 97-18 in T-bond futures and a 1.6 Swiss franc cross to 62.50.

Successive states around one figure

Entry and exit are encoded as successive states around one even figure: a stall just short of it, a brief touch that then pushes through, a slight overshoot that retreats toward the approach print, and a first close beyond the figure that is often paired with a next-session opening reversal, midday new extreme, and opposite close.

The approachNumber is that nearby stall print just short of the even figure, used as the expected retreat target after a first overshoot. The firstCloseThrough is the first session close beyond the even figure, treated as a later-stage acceptance signal.

TradersWeek editorial reading: stage the signal by how completely the round figure has been accepted. The stall and the firstPass are earlier states. The firstCloseThrough is later acceptance of the figure.

First-pass examples in soybeans

In the 1988 soybean advance both July and November were treated as leads into 8.00, with 7.95 as the approachNumber. July reached 7.96-1/2 while November printed through 8.00, marking a firstPass event for both series.

When that soybean market was opening limit-up and gapping, the 9.00 test on 7 June 1988 and the 10.00 test on 21 June 1988 skipped the early stages and opened already through the even figures, then traded back through those levels in the same session.

The 1988 soybean extreme is described as a cash firstPass: cash soybeans for November delivery printed through 10.00 while November futures were limit-up at 10.45, and that cash selling was said to pull both futures off the limit.

A missing reaction as a contrary filter

A firstPass that does not produce the usual retreat is framed as a contrary reading that participants are skipping customary even-number harvest zones. The failedHarvestFilter is that missing reaction at the even figure, read as a contrary sign that usual profit-taking is being ignored.

The filter is illustrated when July soybeans failed to print back under 10.00 on the 21 June 1988 test.

TradersWeek editorial reading: keep the missing reaction as an explicit contrary filter in the procedure rather than as an exception.

Downside sequence in wheat

The same downside sequence was applied to Chicago wheat around 4.00: an approach near 4.04-1/2, a first print through at 3.99 on 31 March 1989 with a close back at the approach number, then a firstCloseThrough at 3.91-1/2 on 7 April 1989 followed by a key reversal.