Market news
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Commerzbank: European Gas Prices to Stay High Despite Hormuz Reopening
Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke expects European gas prices to remain elevated in the near term, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, citing tightening supply.
USD: Energy shock may delay downtrend – MUFG
MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny says the ongoing Middle East conflict, stronger US data, and crude oil risks are limiting USD selling. Better manufacturing and retail figures have not shifted Fed expectations much, but a full rate hike remains priced in.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Expected to Improve in July but Stay at Historically Low Levels
The University of Michigan's preliminary estimate for July's Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show further improvement, though the reading will remain at historically low levels.
Hungarian Forint Under Pressure Against Euro but Story Intact – ING
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky reports broad risk-off sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe, with elevated oil prices and higher core yields pushing regional rates up. Hungarian assets have been heavily sold due to crowded longs, but the overall story for the forint remains intact.
NZD/USD Falls as US Strikes on Iran Fuel Risk Aversion
NZD/USD declined to around 0.5830, down 0.19% on the day, as investors sought safe-haven assets after US strikes on Iran.
ECB Likely to Hold Rates in September, Societe Generale Says
Societe Generale's Anatoli Anenkov expects no policy change at next week's ECB meeting, citing persistent data dependence and recent Euro Area data that have not shifted the outlook.
EUR/USD Stays Sideways as 1.1480 Caps Bulls
EUR/USD continues its sideways movement, trading at 1.1430 after failing to break above 1.1480, as geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices limit euro gains.
Gold Steadies Below $4,000 as Hawkish Fed Outlook Caps Recovery
Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Friday but lacks bullish momentum as rising oil prices revive inflation concerns and reinforce expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates.
TD Securities Says Pound Rally vs Euro Looks Overextended
TD Securities' macro team warns that the recent sterling rally versus the euro appears overextended, suggesting a potential pullback.
Dollar Steadies on Tech-Led Risk-Off Flows
The US dollar recovered some of this week's losses as a technology-driven equity selloff triggered a flight to safety, according to Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Elias Haddad.
HTX Reports $870B+ Trading Volume in First Half of 2026
Crypto exchange HTX disclosed a combined spot and futures trading volume of $870.9B for H1 2026, with registered users reaching 59.49M.
Swiss Franc Lagging as SNB Intervention Risk Persists: OCBC
OCBC strategists note the Swiss Franc has lost safe-haven appeal due to ongoing intervention risk from the Swiss National Bank and low yields.
GBP/USD Extends Decline as UK Leadership Change Weighs
The British Pound continues to weaken against the US Dollar for a second straight day, trading 0.4% lower near 1.3427 amid the ongoing UK leadership transition.
Gold Breaks Below $4000, Tests Key Support
Gold trades below $4000 for the first time since early November 2025, after failing to sustain above that level for nearly a month. The break below this psychological threshold signals a potential shift in short-term momentum.
US Dollar Recovers as Risk Appetite Declines, FOMC Hawkish
The US Dollar has regained ground lost over the previous two days, supported by a decline in global risk appetite and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which signals a potential rate hike if inflation remains above target.
Iran's IRGC Warns of 'More Crushing' Retaliation Against US and Allies
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a warning of heightened aggression against the United States and countries hosting US military bases, threatening a 'more crushing' response during the European trading session.
Silver Falls to $55.44, Down 0.17%
Silver prices edged lower on Friday, trading at $55.44 per troy ounce, down 0.17% from the previous level of $55.53, according to FXStreet data.
BoJ Expected to Keep Rates at 1% in July, Kyodo Reports
According to a Kyodo News report, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 1% during its July policy meeting. The central bank may also raise its growth forecast.
Yen Slides to 162.50, Nearing 40-Year Low
The Japanese Yen weakened for a second straight day against the US Dollar, trading near 162.50, approaching the 40-year low of 162.84 hit earlier.
Tesla Pauses for Next Break Higher as Bulls Hold Above 436
Tesla's recovery above 436 in May signals continued bullish momentum after the decline from December highs to April 2026 lows, with bulls still active.
Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Order Sparks Global Debate
In March 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing a Bitcoin reserve. The industry initially cheered, but analysis reveals the US structure differs from expectations and many countries are still discussing rather than acting.
ECB to Hold Rates in July, Maintain Tightening Bias – Nordea
Nordea expects the European Central Bank to keep policy rates unchanged at the July meeting, citing lower June inflation and volatile Middle East developments. The move is described as a pause rather than a shift in the bank's tightening stance.
Risk Aversion Flows Intensify Amid AI Tech Rout
Risk-off sentiment continues to grip markets following a deepening rout in AI tech stocks, triggered by the Kimi K3 AI model release and comments from China's President Xi.
TD Securities: GBP Bearish vs EUR on Hawkish ECB Guidance
TD Securities strategists see asymmetric downside risks for the British Pound against the Euro, citing hawkish ECB guidance and undervaluation of EUR/GBP relative to rate differentials.