Market news
Crypto, stocks, forex and macro, aggregated for traders.
Japanese Retail Traders Boost Net Dollar Shorts to Record $17.2B
Japanese retail investors increased net short positions against the US dollar to $17.2 billion, a record high since 2008, quadrupling month-over-month amid expectations of continued yen-supportive intervention by authorities.
Scotiabank: Risk Aversion Supports USD but DXY Faces Downside Risks
Scotiabank analysts note the US Dollar is broadly firmer on risk aversion, but warn of downside risks for the DXY index.
EUR/USD Stuck Near 1.1450 as ECB Outlook Weighs on Euro
The EUR/USD pair ended the week little changed around 1.1450, with mounting Middle East tensions offsetting any ECB-driven relief. The outlook suggests the euro may struggle to gain momentum as the ECB decision fails to provide a boost.
Gold Faces Bearish Pressure as Middle East Tensions Counter USD Weakness
Gold prices are struggling to gain despite a weaker US dollar, as escalating Middle East tensions create bearish pressure on the precious metal.
Commerzbank Warns of Rising Oil Risk as Iran Threatens Bab al-Mandab Strait
Commerzbank's commodity team highlights renewed geopolitical risks for oil after Iran again threatens to block the Bab al-Mandab strait, a key transit route for Saudi exports.
Swiss Franc Holds Gains Against US Dollar as Middle East Tensions Outweigh Upbeat US Data
USD/CHF trades near 0.8070, down 0.22% on the day, as safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc offsets support for the US Dollar from stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment.
Ordinals Developer Launches Bitcoin Client DOG Mode, Bypassing BIP-110 Restrictions
An Ordinals developer released a Bitcoin client called DOG Mode that removes Core's limits on transaction size and minimum output, easing the inscription of Ordinals and Runes. The change affects peer-to-peer relay rules, not consensus, and only requires one miner to include such transactions in a block.
Wells Fargo Lifts Global GDP Forecast, Cuts CPI View on Lower Oil
Wells Fargo Economics revised its global GDP growth forecast upward to 2.7% for 2026 while lowering its global CPI estimate to 4.3%, citing a slightly lower oil price outlook.
Fed’s Hammack: Persistent Inflation Remains Key Concern
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that persistently high inflation is a bigger worry, noting broad-based price pressures and consumer distress.
EUR/USD Modest Pullback Before ECB Decision
EUR/USD is trading slightly lower in quiet conditions as markets look ahead to next week's ECB meeting, with policymakers in a blackout period and implied volatility subdued, according to Scotiabank.
TD Securities Forecasts Canada June CPI at 2.9% YoY, Monthly Drop of 0.2%
TD Securities expects Canadian headline CPI to ease to 2.9% year-on-year in June, with a 0.2% monthly decline driven by sharply lower energy prices, supporting the Bank of Canada's stance.
CENTCOM: Tower strike degrades IRGC attack coordination, protects navigation
US Central Command says destroying a tower reduces Iran's IRGC ability to coordinate attacks on civilians and protects freedom of navigation, except for ships violating the US naval blockade against Iran.
US Forces Destroy IRGC Surveillance Tower at Iran Port
US Central Command announced that on July 16, US forces destroyed the Chah Bahar Shahid Kalantari Port surveillance tower, part of an IRGC maritime network along Iran's Gulf of Oman coast used to track commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
ING: DXY Implied Volatility Drops to 2021 Levels, AI Resilience Supports Currencies
ING strategists note that DXY-weighted short-term implied volatility has fallen to levels last seen in 2021, despite geopolitical tensions and Fed risks, with AI-driven equity resilience supporting currencies and carry trades.
Oil prices rise over 1.5% after consolidation
Brent crude oil prices advanced over 1.5% during European trading on Friday, regaining upward momentum after a period of quiet consolidation.
Trump Staffer Accused of Insider Betting on Kalshi
ABC News reports that Donald Trump's teleprompter operator may have used nonpublic information about presidential speeches to place bets on Kalshi, profiting over $100,000. The platform alerted the CFTC, and the White House placed the employee on unpaid leave.
Rabobank: UK Supply-Side Choices Shape Economic Outlook
Rabobank’s Global Daily report highlights how supply-side policy decisions will influence the UK's macroeconomic trajectory, with Labour’s Andy Burnham poised to become prime minister.
US stocks open sharply lower, Dow drops 1% to 51,999.56
US stocks opened sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 553.41 points (1.05%) to 51,999.56. The Nasdaq dropped 466.90 points (1.80%) to 25,415.05, and the S&P 500 declined 90.59 points (1.20%) to 7,443.18.
ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.25% in July, September Hike Possible – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect the European Central Bank to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% in July following June's hike, with a potential move still on the table for September.
USD/CAD Drops to One-Month Low as Oil Rally Boosts Canadian Dollar
The Canadian Dollar strengthened on surging oil prices, pushing USD/CAD to a one-month low around 1.4022. The pair is on track for a second consecutive weekly loss.
Oil's Bull Flag Hides Record Fuel Squeeze as WTI Nears $80
WTI crude oil is trading near $80 after renewed US-Iran attacks and a slowdown in Strait of Hormuz traffic. The chart shows a bull flag, but analysts warn of a hidden record fuel squeeze.
UK Labour's Andy Burnham unveils pro-business inflation plan
Andy Burnham, the Labour leader and Mayor of Greater Manchester, has outlined a pro-business Labour platform, citing his regional experience as a model for future government policy on inflation and economic growth.
Cointelegraph Research and 8lends Report on Crypto Credit Structures
A new report from Cointelegraph Research and 8lends examines the different foundations of crypto credit, comparing CeFi lending, DeFi pools, tokenized Treasuries, and RWA private credit in terms of custody, collateral, and enforcement.
Project Eleven Prototype to Prove Bitcoin Ownership Post-Quantum
Project Eleven has presented a prototype that would allow Bitcoin owners to prove ownership after quantum computers become capable of forging digital signatures. The mechanism is not yet live on the Bitcoin network, has not undergone audits, and would require a protocol change.