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Swiss Franc Holds Gains Against US Dollar as Middle East Tensions Outweigh Upbeat US Data
USD/CHF trades near 0.8070, down 0.22% on the day, as safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc offsets support for the US Dollar from stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment.
Wells Fargo Lifts Global GDP Forecast, Cuts CPI View on Lower Oil
Wells Fargo Economics revised its global GDP growth forecast upward to 2.7% for 2026 while lowering its global CPI estimate to 4.3%, citing a slightly lower oil price outlook.
EUR/USD Modest Pullback Before ECB Decision
EUR/USD is trading slightly lower in quiet conditions as markets look ahead to next week's ECB meeting, with policymakers in a blackout period and implied volatility subdued, according to Scotiabank.
TD Securities Forecasts Canada June CPI at 2.9% YoY, Monthly Drop of 0.2%
TD Securities expects Canadian headline CPI to ease to 2.9% year-on-year in June, with a 0.2% monthly decline driven by sharply lower energy prices, supporting the Bank of Canada's stance.
ING: DXY Implied Volatility Drops to 2021 Levels, AI Resilience Supports Currencies
ING strategists note that DXY-weighted short-term implied volatility has fallen to levels last seen in 2021, despite geopolitical tensions and Fed risks, with AI-driven equity resilience supporting currencies and carry trades.
Rabobank: UK Supply-Side Choices Shape Economic Outlook
Rabobank’s Global Daily report highlights how supply-side policy decisions will influence the UK's macroeconomic trajectory, with Labour’s Andy Burnham poised to become prime minister.
ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.25% in July, September Hike Possible – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect the European Central Bank to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% in July following June's hike, with a potential move still on the table for September.
USD/CAD Drops to One-Month Low as Oil Rally Boosts Canadian Dollar
The Canadian Dollar strengthened on surging oil prices, pushing USD/CAD to a one-month low around 1.4022. The pair is on track for a second consecutive weekly loss.
USD: Energy shock may delay downtrend – MUFG
MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny says the ongoing Middle East conflict, stronger US data, and crude oil risks are limiting USD selling. Better manufacturing and retail figures have not shifted Fed expectations much, but a full rate hike remains priced in.
Hungarian Forint Under Pressure Against Euro but Story Intact – ING
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky reports broad risk-off sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe, with elevated oil prices and higher core yields pushing regional rates up. Hungarian assets have been heavily sold due to crowded longs, but the overall story for the forint remains intact.
NZD/USD Falls as US Strikes on Iran Fuel Risk Aversion
NZD/USD declined to around 0.5830, down 0.19% on the day, as investors sought safe-haven assets after US strikes on Iran.
EUR/USD Stays Sideways as 1.1480 Caps Bulls
EUR/USD continues its sideways movement, trading at 1.1430 after failing to break above 1.1480, as geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices limit euro gains.
Gold Steadies Below $4,000 as Hawkish Fed Outlook Caps Recovery
Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Friday but lacks bullish momentum as rising oil prices revive inflation concerns and reinforce expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates.
TD Securities Says Pound Rally vs Euro Looks Overextended
TD Securities' macro team warns that the recent sterling rally versus the euro appears overextended, suggesting a potential pullback.
Dollar Steadies on Tech-Led Risk-Off Flows
The US dollar recovered some of this week's losses as a technology-driven equity selloff triggered a flight to safety, according to Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Elias Haddad.
Swiss Franc Lagging as SNB Intervention Risk Persists: OCBC
OCBC strategists note the Swiss Franc has lost safe-haven appeal due to ongoing intervention risk from the Swiss National Bank and low yields.
GBP/USD Extends Decline as UK Leadership Change Weighs
The British Pound continues to weaken against the US Dollar for a second straight day, trading 0.4% lower near 1.3427 amid the ongoing UK leadership transition.
Gold Breaks Below $4000, Tests Key Support
Gold trades below $4000 for the first time since early November 2025, after failing to sustain above that level for nearly a month. The break below this psychological threshold signals a potential shift in short-term momentum.
US Dollar Recovers as Risk Appetite Declines, FOMC Hawkish
The US Dollar has regained ground lost over the previous two days, supported by a decline in global risk appetite and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which signals a potential rate hike if inflation remains above target.
BoJ Expected to Keep Rates at 1% in July, Kyodo Reports
According to a Kyodo News report, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 1% during its July policy meeting. The central bank may also raise its growth forecast.
Yen Slides to 162.50, Nearing 40-Year Low
The Japanese Yen weakened for a second straight day against the US Dollar, trading near 162.50, approaching the 40-year low of 162.84 hit earlier.
ECB to Hold Rates in July, Maintain Tightening Bias – Nordea
Nordea expects the European Central Bank to keep policy rates unchanged at the July meeting, citing lower June inflation and volatile Middle East developments. The move is described as a pause rather than a shift in the bank's tightening stance.
Risk Aversion Flows Intensify Amid AI Tech Rout
Risk-off sentiment continues to grip markets following a deepening rout in AI tech stocks, triggered by the Kimi K3 AI model release and comments from China's President Xi.
TD Securities: GBP Bearish vs EUR on Hawkish ECB Guidance
TD Securities strategists see asymmetric downside risks for the British Pound against the Euro, citing hawkish ECB guidance and undervaluation of EUR/GBP relative to rate differentials.