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British Pound Falls as US PPI Reflects Iran Conflict Impact
The British Pound slipped 0.19% on Thursday after the US Producer Price Index showed the effect of the Iran war on energy prices, fueling a US Dollar rebound and oil recovery.
BBH Sees CAD Downside Risk as BoC Holds Rate at 2.25%
Brown Brothers Harriman reports that the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged for a fifth straight meeting, signaling no urgency to hike and supporting downside risk for the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
USD/JPY Steady but Elevated, Pressure Toward 162 – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists note USD/JPY remains elevated with pressure toward the 162 level, as a BoJ rate hike is widely expected this week.
SNB Expected to Hold Rate at 0.00% on June 18 – Nomura
Nomura analysts predict the Swiss National Bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at the upcoming June 18 meeting, citing low inflation and mixed economic data.
ING: One Summer Hike Likely for BoE as UK Economy Softens
ING economist James Smith notes a softer UK backdrop compared to 2022, with falling vacancies, rising unemployment, and slowing wage growth, indicating the Bank of England is torn between a prolonged pause and a symbolic rate hike this summer.
Scotiabank: USD/CAD Eyes 1.40–1.41 on CAD Weakness
Scotia strategists note renewed Canadian dollar weakness as softer oil prices and geopolitical concerns push USD/CAD toward a 1.40–1.41 range, setting new year-to-date highs.
Deutsche Bank Sees UK Inflation Risks Climbing Through 2027
Deutsche Bank expects UK headline CPI to rise to 3.01% in May, with core at 2.72% and services at 3.65%. The bank projects CPI averaging 3.1% this year, easing to 2.6% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2028, with risks skewed to the upside.
RBA Likely to Keep Rates on Hold After Weak Data, Tax Changes – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists argue recent weak Australian data and federal budget tax changes should keep the RBA cash rate at 4.35% next week and likely on hold for an extended period.
Nomura: SNB to Emphasize FX Intervention Despite CHF Drop
Nomura’s European economics team expects the Swiss National Bank to maintain its emphasis on a high willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets, even as the Swiss franc has recently depreciated.
Gold Hits 2024 Low on Hawkish Rate Expectations
Gold (XAU/USD) fell to a six-month low on Thursday, erasing all year-to-date gains, as expectations for prolonged high interest rates and technical selling pressured the metal.
BBH: BoJ Rate Hike Fully Priced In, USD/JPY Near 160.50
Brown Brothers Harriman notes that USD/JPY is trading tightly around 160.50, just below the late-April pre-intervention high, with a 25 bps Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% already fully priced in.
UOB Sees AUD/USD Grinding Lower Toward 0.6975
United Overseas Bank analysts maintain a bearish stance on AUD/USD after the pair closed below 0.7000, targeting a gradual move toward 0.6975 despite modest downside momentum.
ING: ECB Summer Hikes Are Insurance, Not Based on Current Data
ING’s Carsten Brzeski says the European Central Bank’s planned summer rate hikes are precautionary, driven by memories of 2022 inflation rather than today’s moderate headline inflation and survey-based expectations.
TD Securities Sees USD/CAD Converging to 1.38 as BoC Holds Rates
TD Securities reports the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% with a balanced tone, expecting a hold through 2026, and forecasts the Canadian dollar converging to 1.38 against the US dollar.
USD/CAD Rises as Safe-Haven Demand Bolsters US Dollar
USD/CAD advanced toward 1.3975 on Thursday, up 0.23% on the day, as the US dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions.
British Pound Edges Lower Ahead of UK GDP Data
The British Pound weakened slightly against the US Dollar on Thursday, trading near 1.3350, as markets await UK monthly GDP figures.
BoC caution limits Canadian Dollar gains against USD – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister notes the Bank of Canada kept rates at 2.25% and sees little impetus for near-term tightening as core inflation eases and the economy weakens.
AUD Stays Near Two-Month Low as Risk Aversion Lifts USD
The Australian Dollar remains under pressure, trading near two-month lows against a strengthening US Dollar amid risk-off market sentiment.
TD Securities: USD Uptrend Intact into FOMC Despite UK CPI Softness
TD Securities strategists note that a softer UK core CPI print initially weakened the USD, but they expect the broader uptrend to hold into next week's FOMC meeting.
Gold and US Dollar Slide After June US Inflation Data
Both gold and the US dollar declined across most pairs following the release of June 10 US inflation figures that largely met consensus. Traders also focused on renewed tensions between the US and Iran.
Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% as Recession Fears Persist: Rabobank
Rabobank analysts note the Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% in June, citing ongoing recession risks and elevated inflation from high energy prices.
BBH: EUR/USD Faces Downside Risk Ahead of ECB Hike
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad warns that EUR/USD is trading defensively near 1.1530 ahead of an expected 25 bps ECB rate hike to 2.25%, with updated projections likely being downgraded.
ECB Set for First Rate Hike in Three Years, Geopolitical Risks Mount
The ECB is reportedly preparing to begin tightening monetary policy for the first time in three years, while US exchanges launched a second consecutive night of strikes on Iran and SpaceX IPO is said to be imminent.
EUR/JPY Flat Near 185.20 as ECB Guidance and Intervention Fears Cap Gains
EUR/JPY trades flat around 185.20 as traders await ECB guidance and remain cautious over potential intervention.