XTB Shares Jump 8.6% to Record as Q2 Profit Beats Analyst Forecast

Shares of Warsaw-listed online broker XTB jumped 8.6% on Thursday to PLN 147.68, an all-time closing high, after preliminary first-half results showed second-quarter profitability remained close to the previous quarter's record level even as client trading volumes fell. The stock traded at PLN 75.00 a year earlier, putting its 12-month gain at about 97%; including the PLN 4.07 dividend paid this year, total return exceeded 100%.

XTB reported Q2 net profit of PLN 492.2 million, only 8% below the record PLN 535 million earned in Q1. Operating revenue declined 9.3% quarter-on-quarter to PLN 992.6 million, while CFD volume measured in lots dropped 21.2%. However, profitability per CFD lot rose to PLN 484 from PLN 439, cushioning the impact of weaker trading activity.

The result also came in well above the latest publicly available analyst estimate. Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski had forecast Q2 net profit of about PLN 403 million, meaning XTB beat that projection by PLN 89.2 million, or 22.1%. That reversed the pattern of the previous three quarters, when analyst forecasts exceeded actual reported profits. Chrzanowski also raised his full-year 2026 net profit forecast by 50% to PLN 1.5 billion; XTB has generated roughly PLN 1.03 billion in the first half, more than two-thirds of that target. His client acquisition estimate was closer: he expected 320,000-330,000 new clients in Q2, while the actual figure came to approximately 333,300.

Broader earnings mix

Beyond the headline profit, XTB's revenue composition changed notably between Q1 and Q2. Commodity CFDs generated 60.5% of the gross result from financial instruments in Q2, down from 88.5% in Q1, while index CFDs jumped from 2.1% to 27.1%. FM Intelligence calculations suggest the rise in index-CFD contribution offset roughly 64% of the quarter-on-quarter decline in commodity contribution. Commodities still accounted for 75.3% of the first-half result, but US index instruments helped broaden the earnings mix. In Q1, gold had been the largest single instrument contributor, followed by silver and cocoa.

Across H1, XTB's operating revenue rose 79.7% to PLN 2.09 billion and net profit increased 150.5% to PLN 1.03 billion. The broker added more than 703,000 clients during the six months and reported almost 1.49 million active clients. Shares, ETFs and Investment Plans accounted for 82.9% of first transactions by new European Union clients, while CFDs generated about PLN 1.98 billion, or roughly 96%, of the PLN 2.07 billion gross result from financial instruments. Turnover in shares and ETFs more than doubled to $18.44 billion.

The preliminary report also contrasts with last year, when XTB's net profit fell despite a 41% increase in CFD lot volume, as per-lot profitability weakened and costs rose. The latest quarter produced the reverse: less volume but more profit generated per lot. For investors, the combination of continued client growth, strong investment-product activity and resilient CFD profitability appears to have outweighed the sequential drop in revenue and profit, pushing the stock to a record.