US Treasury Market Shows Crisis-Like Volatility as MOVE Index Spikes
The MOVE index jumped 19% last week, the largest weekly rise since April 2025, while 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2007 and 2004 respectively.
US bond market volatility has reached historic levels. The MOVE index — often called the "VIX of bonds" — rose 19% last week, its largest weekly increase since April 2025 and the third-largest since the 2022 bear market. The index tracks yield volatility across 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasuries.
The spike in yield volatility came alongside a sharp rise in long-end Treasury yields. The 10-year note yield added 17 basis points to 5.17%, the highest since June 2007. The 30-year yield rose 16 basis points and traded above 5.50% for the first time since June 2004.
For comparison, the MOVE index surged 29% in the week ending March 17, 2023, after the US banking crisis and collapse of three regional banks. The Treasury market is now experiencing similar crisis-like volatility.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter