US Jobs Plentiful-Hard to Find Gap Narrows to Pandemic-Era Low
The gap between consumers viewing jobs as plentiful vs hard to find fell to 2.4 points in June, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic. Only 24.9% say jobs are plentiful, while 22.5% say hard to find, suggesting unemployment could rise to 6%.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reveals a stark deterioration in labor market perceptions. In June, the gap between those who say jobs are "plentiful" and those who say jobs are "hard to find" shrank to just 2.4 points—the narrowest since 2020. The proportion of consumers reporting plentiful jobs dropped to 24.9%, down from roughly 55% in 2022, while those saying jobs are hard to find rose to 22.5%, the highest since January 2021.
Historically, this spread has been a reliable leading indicator of rising unemployment. Based on past correlations, the current reading suggests the US unemployment rate could climb to as high as 6.0%, from the current 4.2%. Additional weakness is seen in the labor force participation rate, which fell to 61.5% in June—the lowest since June 1976, excluding the pandemic period. The labor force itself shrank by 720,000 last month to 169.36 million, the lowest since December 2024.
- Plentiful vs hard to find gap: 2.4 points (lowest since 2020)
- Plentiful: 24.9% (down from ~55% in 2022)
- Hard to find: 22.5% (highest since Jan 2021)
- Labor force participation: 61.5% (lowest since June 1976 ex-pandemic)
- Labor force change: -720,000 to 169.36M The data signals that the job market is considerably weaker than headline figures suggest.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter