US Consumers See Higher Unemployment Risk, Survey Shows

US consumers are assigning a higher probability to a weaker labor market over the next year. The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations put the average perceived chance of a higher unemployment rate in one year at 44.4% in August, up 1.6 percentage points from the prior month. That is the highest since April 2020 and, excluding the pandemic period, the highest since the survey began in 2013.

Expectations are now slightly above the 44.1% peak recorded in April 2025, when tariff uncertainty weighed on sentiment.

By income group, the pressure is most visible among higher earners. Respondents earning over $100,000 reported a 50.3% probability, the second-highest on record. Middle-income respondents earning $50,000–$100,000 saw 43.5%, the second-highest since March 2025, while those earning under $50,000 reported 38.0%, the highest since May.