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macroJul 6, 2026, 2:20 PM

TD Securities Sees US Sideways Growth, Sticky Inflation in 2026

TD Securities projects US output growth to move sideways in 2026, with GDP at 2.0% Q4/Q4 and unemployment around 4.3%. The firm notes stagflationary risks from Iran conflict and oil shock, while AI and high-income consumers provide support.

TD Securities forecasts that US economic growth will remain sideways in 2026, slightly below trend. The firm expects Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to reach 2.0% on a Q4/Q4 basis, with the unemployment rate hovering near 4.3%.

The outlook is tempered by potential stagflationary risks stemming from the Iran conflict and an oil supply shock. However, continued momentum from artificial intelligence investment and spending by high-income consumers is seen as providing a buffer.

Inflation is expected to remain sticky, adding to the challenge for policymakers. The projection comes amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and a mixed macroeconomic backdrop.

Source: FXStreet Forex News