TD Securities Sees US June NFP Slowing to 80k, Unemployment at 4.2%

TD Securities' macro team, led by Oscar Munoz, projects that June US nonfarm payrolls will slow to 80,000, a significant drop from recent trends. The breakdown includes 55,000 private-sector jobs and 25,000 government positions, indicating a return to breakeven job growth.

The unemployment rate is expected to edge down slightly to 4.2% as participation rate data are awaited. These figures suggest labor market stability and could temper expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The forecast aligns with a more moderate pace of hiring, potentially supporting a pause in the Fed's tightening cycle.