Polish Zloty Weighed by Slow NBP Hawkish Shift, Commerzbank Says

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that Polish headline and core inflation have re-accelerated, with seasonally adjusted monthly rates now clearly above target. That removes some of the disinflation narrative that previously supported expectations for National Bank of Poland rate cuts.

Earlier signals from NBP Governor Adam Glapinski pointing to possible rate cuts now look less consistent with the inflation data. As a result, the central bank’s hawkish shift is proceeding slowly, and that is weighing on the Polish zloty.

Key points:

• Headline and core inflation have re-accelerated.
• Seasonally adjusted monthly inflation is clearly above target.
• Earlier NBP rate-cut signals are being challenged.