Diesel Supply Losses Deepen as Middle East and Russia Flows Drop
Analysts estimate combined Middle East and Russian diesel supply fell by about 1.1 million bpd between March and August 2026 versus a year earlier, with Russian losses accelerating after an export ban.
Diesel supply losses are deepening across key exporting regions, according to estimates from Vortexa, Kpler and Energy Aspects.
Vortexa estimates Middle East diesel supply fell by 835,000 barrels per day on average between March and August 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, while Russian supply dropped 377,000 bpd. Kpler puts the declines at 750,000 bpd for the Middle East and 361,000 bpd for Russia; Energy Aspects estimates 733,000 bpd and 307,000 bpd respectively.
The average of the three estimates is a loss of about 772,667 bpd from the Middle East and 348,333 bpd from Russia, or roughly 1.1 million bpd combined.
Russian diesel losses accelerated to 615,000 bpd year-over-year on average in July and August, following Russia's diesel-export ban.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter