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2016issue C0260

Futures liquidity filter with equal-dollar size and effective margin

A futures liquidity rank can be assembled from contract value, a three-year maximum price motion, openInterest and a volumeFactor. percentMargin is then paired with effectivePercentMargin so collateral can be compared across contracts before size is chosen.

  • Contracts that display a single activity mark or none are treated as poor candidates for speculative execution because they show little trading activity.
  • contractsToTradeForEqualDollarSize rescales each market so that every count represents the same three-year dollar excursion.
  • relativeContractLiquidity multiplies that equal-dollar count by openInterest and a volumeFactor, then orders markets from easiest to hardest to buy and sell.
  • percentMargin and effectivePercentMargin are paired so collateral can be compared across contracts before size is chosen.
Entries in this reading3 entries

Ordering markets by relative contract liquidity

A futures liquidity rank can be assembled as contract point value multiplied by a three-year maximum price motion, then by openInterest, then by a volumeFactor usually set between 1 and 4 when volume is unusually low or high. The finished rank orders markets from easiest to hardest to buy and sell across all outstanding contracts.

Markets with little trading activity

Contracts that display a single activity mark or none are treated as poor candidates for speculative execution because they show little trading activity.

Equal-dollar contract counts

Cross-market contract counts are equalized by multiplying contract value by the largest price change observed over three years, so every count in that series represents the same dollar amount.

contractsToTradeForEqualDollarSize is the number of contracts of one market required so that its threeYearMaximumPriceExcursion matches that of the other listed markets. threeYearMaximumPriceExcursion is the largest price move observed over a trailing three-year window, converted to dollars with tick or point value.

Contracts needed for equal three-year dollar profit

How many contracts of each listed future match the same three-year dollar excursion used to equalize size. Crude oil, gasoline, Brent, S&P GSCI, ethanol and gold sit at one contract; Eurodollar, two-year notes and fed funds require dozens. Counts come from the Trading Liquidity: Futures table printed with the article.
How many contracts of each listed future match the same three-year dollar excursion used to equalize size. Crude oil, gasoline, Brent, S&P GSCI, ethanol and gold sit at one contract; Eurodollar, two-year notes and fed funds require dozens. Counts come from the Trading Liquidity: Futures table printed with the article.Commodity futures listed in the February 2016 Trading Liquidity table · Three-year maximum price excursion used for equal-dollar sizing

Assembling relative contract liquidity

relativeContractLiquidity is a descending cross-market rank built from equal-dollar contract count, openInterest, and a volume adjustment, used to judge how easily a market’s outstanding contracts can be bought or sold.

Relative contract liquidity is the equal-dollar contract count multiplied by total openInterest and by a volumeFactor defined as the greater of 1 or an exponential log-volume adjustment that uses 5,000 contracts as the reference and subtracts 2. volumeFactor is a multiplier, typically between one and four, that adjusts the liquidity product when volume is unusually low or high. openInterest is the count of outstanding contracts used as a capacity input in the liquidity product.

Posted margin and effective margin

percentMargin is posted margin expressed as a percentage of contemporaneous contract value. effectivePercentMargin is posted margin in dollars divided by the contract’s three-year dollar price range, then multiplied by one hundred, used to compare how hard collateral works against historical motion.

Posted percent margin and effective percent margin are paired so collateral can be compared across contracts before size is chosen.

How the columns are read

Each constructed column is a proportional figure and is meaningful only when one contract is compared with others in the same column.

For listed shares, period volume divided by shares outstanding is used as a turnover-rate stand-in for trading liquidity. That stand-in is shareTurnover: period volume expressed as a percentage of shares outstanding, used as a liquidity proxy in listed equities.

Educational research material, not investment advice. Historical source context does not establish present-day performance.
18 of 25 in the Margin management track
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All readings on this track · 25 readings
  1. 1988When action-seeking replaces the decision process
  2. 1997Convert a market story into a testable decision process
  3. 2004Posted margin as the scarce input of an option-income write
  4. 2004Capping futures leverage to intended share exposure
  5. 2005Currency execution costs hide in spreads and margin
  6. 2006Daily margin as a leverage filter
  7. 2006A commodity sleeve is a contract-design choice
  8. 2007Bounding futures risk with stops, trails, and margin
  9. 2010Currency futures versus forex on spread, margin, and micros
  10. 2010Enforced margin as the real futures trade guarantee
  11. 2010Choose mini or standard futures before the first fill
  12. 2012Segregated margin is an incomplete exposure filter
  13. 2013Posted tickets hide margin and fill gates
  14. 2013Portfolio margin calls versus pair-hedge leverage locks
  15. 2015Forex execution checks for fills, margin, and leverage
  16. 2015Cheaper margin is not a currency leverage edge
  17. 2015Cheap daytrading margin is not a risk discount
  18. 2016Futures liquidity filter with equal-dollar size and effective margin
  19. 2016Cap futures leverage before margin turns into debt
  20. 2016Gold option income as a margin-sizing problem
  21. 2017Electronic matching changed what a futures account could carry
  22. 2018Broker margin-upcharges can force an option-income exit
  23. 2019Inspect execution cost and margin bounds before cycle timing
  24. 2020Treat automatic futures gearing as a pre-entry filter
  25. 2020Equal-dollar futures liquidity and an effective margin screen
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