Evaluating double tops with a throwback clock

Counting holds and failures

Vague assurances that chart formations work most of the time were treated as untestable. Pattern recognition counted historical price series for how often named patterns held or failed.

One historical tabulation listed a 3% failure rate for head-and-shoulders bottoms in a bull market and a 51% throwback rate in a bear market.

How a double-top style path was specified

A double-top style setup was specified as a steep run from a flat base or consolidation to the first peak, later confirmation, then a return toward the launch point.

In that double-top style path the first climb averaged 24 days and the later move back toward the launch point averaged 19 days.

A throwback and pullback clock

An upward-breakout throwback was described as a crest in about three days, a return to the breakout in about seven days, and a later continuation higher in 86% of sampled cases.

A downward-breakout pullback was described as a low in about three days, a return to the breakout in about seven days, and a later continuation lower in 87% of sampled cases.

Samples that included a Throwback and pullback showed weaker subsequent movement than samples that did not return to the breakout.

Nearby congestion as a warning band

Overhead congestion about 6% to 10% from the breakout was treated as a throwback warning, while resistance inside about 5% was more often crossed.

What was written before the decision

A written qualification sheet recorded a pattern score, a measured-height objective, nearby congestion, and stop distance before the decision was logged.

Editorial view: those written fields, together with the counted failure baseline and the Throwback and pullback clock, are what let a sketched Double top and bottom earn the forecast label rather than remain an untested shape.