2004issue C011-5
A completed supercycle count as a Fibonacci ratio laboratory
The archive applies a completed five-wave supercycle count to the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the 1932 low to the January 2000 high. Editorial interpretation: TradersWeek treats that finished Elliott wave analysis as a ratio laboratory, using Elliott wave counting to lock the labels, then comparing later impulses with earlier ones through Fibonacci multiples.
- A completed five-wave supercycle count on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from the 1932 low to the January 2000 high, covers 68 years of price history and is treated as a finished structure.
- Elliott wave counting keeps wave 3 from being the shortest impulse and keeps wave 4 out of the price territory of wave 1 before any ratio is read.
- Length ratios, a factor near 2.28, a shared multiple near 3.82, and the Fibonacci ratio 1.618 are used to compare cycle-degree advances and their primary subdivisions.
- Wavelength is a wave's length divided by its starting price, and cycle II is labeled as a three-wave decline that opens with a linear halving that mirrors the first advance's linear doubling.
A finished supercycle on the Dow
The archive applies a completed five-wave supercycle count to the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the 1932 low to the January 2000 high, covering 68 years of price history. In that Elliott wave analysis, waves 1, 3, and 5 are treated as trend-direction advances of one larger degree, while waves 2 and 4 are treated as corrections of the preceding advances.
Two counting rules
Two counting rules are applied. Wave 3 is not allowed to be the shortest impulse. Wave 4 is not allowed to enter the price territory of wave 1. On the same long-term chart, cycle-degree waves I, III, and V are shown subdividing into five-wave structures of primary degree.
Impulse length ratios
Length ratios of the first two primary waves in cycles I, III, and V are reported as 1.288, 2.288, and 1.54. Major cycle-degree turning points are related by the factor 2.28 or a power of that factor. One reported pair is 11908 divided by 1001.11, which equals 11.89 and is described as 2.28 cubed. Matching primary waves of cycle V versus cycle III share a common length factor near 3.82, written as 2.29 to the power 1.618, using the Fibonacci ratio 1.618.
Wavelength and the cycle II decline
Wavelength is defined as a wave's length divided by its starting price. It is reported as 3.82, 9.80, and 19.89 for cycles I, III, and V. Cycle I's wavelength divided by 6.28 equals 0.61, the inverse of 1.618. Cycle II is labeled as a three-wave decline whose first leg is a linear halving, 195.59 / 97.46 = 2.00, mirroring the linear doubling that opened the first advance, 81.39 / 40.56 = 2.00.
A logarithmic doubling
A logarithmic doubling is reported from the supercycle start at 40.56 (log 1.608) to the 1987 low at 1616.21 (log 3.208), a ratio of about 2. The last primary advance measures ln 11908 minus ln 1616 equals 1.997.
All readings on this track · 14 readings
- 1982Why wave counting stops full Elliott automation
- 1988Counting the 1987 Grand Supercycle peak as three claims
- 1990Promoting wave degree after a near-full retracement
- 1991A locked gold zigzag that had to produce two prices
- 2001Constructing Elliott wave counts with Fibonacci ratios
- 2002Constructing nested Elliott wave counts with ratio clusters
- 2002Auditing five-wave counts for overlap and length
- 2004A completed supercycle count as a Fibonacci ratio laboratory
- 2011The wave count as a falsifiable trade hypothesis
- 2014Constructing Elliott correction counts with Renko and zigzag
- 2015ABC wave labels as a square-of-nine timing hypothesis
- 2017Top-down Elliott wave count alignment
- 2019Wave-degree discipline for a 2018-2019 US long-wave top
- 2019Treat a completed cycle peak as a laboratory for repeating wave ratios