2010issue C1150-59
Bound trend risk before the trade is placed
Long-horizon trading is framed here as a written plan that is heavy on risk management, not as a search for a hidden entry secret. Risk is stacked as risk per trade, sector risk, and open-trade risk, with the stop written before entry.
- A trend-following idea is still incomplete until risk per trade, sector risk, and open-trade risk are written down.
- A position concentration limit exists so one sector signal does not become a book of related trades that can reverse together overnight.
- Each trade needs two pictures: the look that confirms the opportunity and the look that shows it is no longer viable.
- Staying underleveraged means skipping some otherwise valid signals when the stop distance would exceed the allowed loss.
A written plan, not an entry secret
The interview frames successful long-horizon trading as a written plan that is heavy on risk management rather than as a search for a hidden entry secret. Trend following is a ruleset that enters when a trend is already in place, holds winners while the trend continues, and exits when the trend fails.
The same plan is described as expecting both quiet multi-month stretches with little trend and short trades that last only a day when the idea fails.
Three stacked bounds
Risk is described as three stacked bounds: risk per trade, risk per sector, and open-trade risk. Risk per trade is the fraction of account equity that may be lost if one position hits its stop. Sector risk is the combined exposure allowed in related markets that can move together. Open-trade risk is the combined equity at risk across all positions that are still open.
A position concentration limit is a cap on how much equity can sit in one market, one sector, or correlated open trades so a single theme cannot dominate the account. Buying every related instrument after one sector signal is presented as a concentration error that can produce a large overnight loss when that theme reverses.
Two pictures and a stop placed first
Each trade is defined by two market pictures: the look that confirms an opportunity and the look that shows that opportunity is no longer viable in that time frame. A stop-loss is a precommitted exit that ends a position when the market no longer looks like the intended opportunity, so the loss size is known before entry.
Stops are placed before entry from a percentage of equity. A failed trend is handled by getting stopped out and accepting a small loss instead of holding through the reversal.
What remains after large losses are removed
Trend following is taught as a way to cut losses, hold winners, and leave only the three remaining outcomes after large losses are removed from the four possible trade results. In that teaching frame, a trade can make a little, lose a little, make a lot, or lose a lot. Removing large losses leaves the other three outcomes.
Underleveraged means skipping some signals
Staying underleveraged means choosing a smaller risk fraction so some otherwise valid signals must be skipped when the stop distance would exceed the allowed loss. A fixed risk fraction is described as harder on a smaller account, and a much smaller account is described as being pushed into a higher capital fraction.
All readings on this track · 15 readings
- 1991Keep one risk ceiling after equity highs
- 1999Pre-trade size filters for expectancy and ruin
- 2000Budget the loss before entry with stops and position limits
- 2002Retest the entry before you exit
- 2002Option income after volatility and capital gates
- 2002Cap, scale, and delever when research buys late
- 2003Staying power starts as a planned-loser sizing rule
- 2006Leverage caps and concentration limits
- 2007A first-trade survival sequence for leveraged futures
- 2010Bound trend risk before the trade is placed
- 2011Event shocks, size caps, and second-order reweights
- 2014A copied scale-in ladder is not a personal risk plan
- 2018Worst-day caps for clustered system books
- 2019Pair-spread layer limits and event shocks
- 2020Pretrade quantity filters that bound account risk