2003issue C061-2
Staying power starts as a planned-loser sizing rule
Staying power is leftover capital and composure after a loss or a temporary move against the analysis. The archive workflow keeps it by capping one idea, requiring a stop, and treating each new trade as a planned loser.
- A later-confirmed view of value or direction can still produce a realized loss if the position is opened at the wrong time.
- An outsized share of capital on one idea can make a single adverse move crippling; a concentration limit may leave enough capacity to hold through a temporary move against the analysis.
- Treating each trade as if it will lose is used to bound capital at risk, require a coherent stop, and make the exit easier to execute.
- Belief that every trade will win can produce both excessive size and a tendency to stay in a position that has already moved against the plan.
Staying power is leftover capacity
Staying power is the leftover capital and composure that let a trader continue after a loss or through a temporary move against the analysis. If the same idea is not loaded to an extreme, the account may retain enough capacity to hold through a temporary move against the analysis.
A position concentration limit is a pre-entry cap on how much account equity one idea may use, so a single adverse outcome cannot disable the account.
Direction and timing both have to work
A later-confirmed view of value or direction can still produce a realized loss if the position is opened at the wrong time. In leveraged markets, a trade is described as needing both a correct directional view and usable timing. Being right on only one is treated as insufficient.
Direction and timing is that dual requirement: a usable trade needs both a workable market direction and an entry window the account can survive.
An outsized position can force the exit
Placing an outsized share of trading capital on one position can make a single adverse move crippling. Repeatedly enlarging a long after each further decline can push exposure past the trader’s tolerance and force an exit before the anticipated rise.
Plan each trade as a potential loser
Treating each trade as if it will lose is used to reduce attachment to being right and to make an exit easier to execute. The same assume-loss stance is used to keep only a bounded amount of capital at risk so a losing trade still leaves reserve to continue.
Planning the trade as a potential loser is also used to require clear, coherent stop levels before and during the position. A stop-loss is a predefined exit that bounds the loss if price moves against the position, set before entry and kept in force while the trade is open.
The assume-loss process treats each new trade as a planned loser so size, stops, and permission to exit are decided before the need to be right takes over. Belief that every individual trade will win can produce both excessive size and a tendency to stay in a position that has already moved against the plan.
Losing trades are treated as a normal part of a working process when size and exits are handled, and as a source of large damage when they are not.
All readings on this track · 15 readings
- 1991Keep one risk ceiling after equity highs
- 1999Pre-trade size filters for expectancy and ruin
- 2000Budget the loss before entry with stops and position limits
- 2002Retest the entry before you exit
- 2002Option income after volatility and capital gates
- 2002Cap, scale, and delever when research buys late
- 2003Staying power starts as a planned-loser sizing rule
- 2006Leverage caps and concentration limits
- 2007A first-trade survival sequence for leveraged futures
- 2010Bound trend risk before the trade is placed
- 2011Event shocks, size caps, and second-order reweights
- 2014A copied scale-in ladder is not a personal risk plan
- 2018Worst-day caps for clustered system books
- 2019Pair-spread layer limits and event shocks
- 2020Pretrade quantity filters that bound account risk